After four and a half years of the most inept administration of foreign policy concerning the Middle-East since a Georgia peanut farmer played a term as POTUS and managed to lose the late shahs Iran as a valuable ally in favor of a theocractic tyrant who wished to drag his country and the region back to the seventh century it would seem hard to display any increased ineptitude. But the events of the last several month have proven that the White House has outdone itself in demonstrating ignorance and its ability to promulgate rankly absurd policy. From Syria to Egypt and Iraq and on to the Palestine-Israel question and now to Irans nuclear bid amidst lingering questions about Libya worthy of impeachment the American foreign policy establishment as represented by the current administration has shown that it has no comprehension of who is friend and who is foe in that crucial region or worse yet doesnt care. A more dangerous situation is hard to imagine.
Two and a half years ago when the North African revolutions began to spawn change in much of the Arab world and still seemed to portend a potential dawn of democracy questions were raised about key players in the movements to overthrow Mubarak Gaddafi Saleh and Assad. With the passage of time it has become clear that the Ikhwan (the Muslim Brotherhood) and al-Qaeda have been and continue to be major players in these revolutions and that the hoped-for Western-oriented secular movements were either illusory or vastly out-manned and/or out-gunned by the Islamists.
Despite the fact that none of the revolts led to an improved civil society or a boost to American and/or Western interests in any of the countries affected by the so-called Arab Spring the administration continues to meddle in the area but without any apparent perception of the needs and concerns of long-standing allies or the threatsboth potential and actualthat foes present to us and/or our allies. It seems that our policies are being dictated by a robot that has suffered a frontal lobotomy.
Lets begin with Egyptthe largest and most important of Arab nationsa state that has been a consistant ally for more than three decades. Yes Hosni Mubarak was a dictator but Egypt has no history of non-dictatorial rule. And while the Ikhwans presidential candidate Mohammed Morsi was elected in a democratic election he was amassing presidential powers that clearly spelled a return to one-party rulein this case the Muslim Brotherhood. The counter-revolution launched by the Egyptian Army and the Tamarud Movement was a popular rebellion against Morsis rapid Islamization of Egyptian society. The inability of the U.S. administration to understand that General Abdel Fattah al-Sisi was acting to prevent Islamic tyranny on a scale similar to that of Khomenist Iran and that a cut-off of foreign aid to Egypt under such circumstances was and is counter to American interests is beyond comprehension. Instead of thanking al-Sisi for preventing another Iran the administration sought to punish him. And given the ability of Russias Putin to jump in to replace American military aid we are finding that a loyal ally is switching to the Russian camp. Fat chanch that that will help promote democracy in Egypt!
Having aided Islamists to topple the regime of Libyan strongman Colonel Muamar Gaddafi we were taken by surprise on September 11 2011 when Salafists attacked our consulate in Benghazi. And all that we have gotten since then is cover-up and obfiscationi. Acts and deeds that other nations deem reason for banishment from government if not jail time have simply been ignored or hidden behind outlandish excusesii. And Congress has been remiss in not pressing the investigation much harder and making public their findings.
Saudi Arabia is joining Egypt in its intense displeasure with the USan attitude it shares with Israel currentlybecause of Washingtons increasingly feckless policy towards Iran.
What common denominator unifies most if not all of these headlines? Unfortunately it appears to be the disarray and naivet being demonstrated by our current government concerning the region and the way in which politics and negotiations are conducted there. In a word: Toto Barack and John Kerry you aint in Kansas anymore!
The problems that are occurring in the region are not new. They arein many instances old ones that date back over a thousand years. But whether recent or old they are not solved by throwing at them a weak Western-oriented logic or negotiating stance. Lee Smith long time Middle-East reporter for the Weekly Standard and author of the astute 2010 book The Strong Horse: Power Politics and the Clash of Arab Civilizations points out that in Arab and Middle-East politics Marquis of Queensberry Rules are ignored and he who plays by them is at a distinct disadvantage. This point of Smith seems to be totally lost or at least forgotten by the State Department and the White House. Instead of projecting strengthwhich is 90 of the battle in Middle-East politicsour government is projecting weakness. And contrary to what may be the thinking at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in the Middle-East weakness doesnt invite friendship; it invites and encourages disdain.
What seems to be causing such consternation among Americas traditional allies in the regionIsrael Saudi Arabia Jordan Egypt and the Gulf Emirates (excluding Qatar) as well as Turkeyis the current American policy of pressuring allies and placating enemies. A policy of drawing red-lines in the sandwhether with Syria or Iranand then continuously retreatingis doing nothing to inspire confidence. Other than Turkeywhich under Erdogan and the AKP has decided to go its own way in attempting to reconstruct the influence of the Ottoman Empireall of the afore-mentioned nations feel abandoned by Washington and AKP-run Turkey doesnt really care anymore although it should as its economic bubble is about to burst.iii
The result of Washingtons inept policies is that Saudi Arabia is considering importing Pakistani nuclear bombs which it helped finance. Egypt Saudi Arabia and Jordan are all looking into beginning nuclear industries as is Turkey for that matter. Rather than bringing peace to the region Washingtons retreat is causing a proliferation of nuclear programs which in such a volatile area is a recipe for disaster.
Ari Shavit senior correspondent at Haaretz and a member of its editorial board wrote an op-ed on November 14 2013 for Haaretz entitled Lost cause in Geneva"iv in which he indicates that the US is worn out and incapable of stopping the Iranians from getting the bomb. Shavit is a liberal and Haaretz is owned by the International Herald an affiliate of the New York Times so this is not the ranting of someone from Gush Emunim or the Hilltop Settlers Movement. Shavit reports that Americas Iran policy is simply to delay Irans nuclear breakout until just after Obama leaves office so that he can claim that it didnt occur on his watch. Israels current displeasure with Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry is only topped by the displeasure with these two as expressed by Saudi Arabia the Gulf States Egypt Jordan and Turkey. As Shavit puts it in the conclusion of his article when referring to 2014:
Itll be fun my friends. The Sunnis and the Jews are boiling with anger. Therefore they are now holding hands and launching a campaign against the Christians and Shiites who are closing a deal in Geneva."v
Israeli displeasure with the current administration hit the boiling point in the last couple of months due to four separate issues that came to light. First was the American confirmation on October 31st of Israels secret attack on Syrias missile base near Latakia in which Israel destroyed Syrias new advanced Russian-made S-125 antiaircraft missile launchersvi. Israel doesnt announce its extra-territorial activities so as not to embarrass publicly its targetsthereby helping to prevent a face-saving act of retaliation that would be costly to both sides. Only a fool or someone trying to stir up trouble would break that code of silence. Mr. President: Which is it? Are you fools or are you deliberately trying to cause problems for an ally?
Israels second beef with Washington concerns US Secretary of State John Kerry. While in Jerusalem to meet again with Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas Kerry announced that any breakdown in the peace talkswhich he inferred was Israels fault for not acceding to Palestinian demandswould cause an outbreak of a third intifada. Kerrys statement did little to bolster his claim to neutrality. As if that was not enough a letter endorsing two Palestinian-Americans planning to participate in the 2010 running of the Gaza blockadewhich incidentally included the infamous MV Mavi Marmara incident on May 31 2010surfaced during the Secretary of States November visit with Kerrys signature when he still was a senator and head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.vii The sponsoring organization of the run of the Gaza Blockade and owner of the Mavi Marmara was the İnsan Hak ve Hrriyetleri ve İnsani Yardım Vakfıviii a Turkish Islamist humanitarian" group whose principal beneficiary is the Union of Good" which is designatedix as a Specially Designated Terrorist Group by the US Office of Foreign Asset Control and banned by Executive Order 13224. John Kerry either is a fool or was deliberately trying to cause problems for an ally. Either way he shouldnt be the Secretary of State.
Israels third point concerns Americas disinterest in confronting Iran in a serious manner. At the time that sanctions are finally taking a major bite out of the Iranian economy and tightening then stands the chance of causing Iran to cry uncle" Obama agreed to cut a deal that would slow the Iranian program but fail to halt it in return for major sanctions relief of at least seven billion dollars and possibly as much as twenty billion. The interim agreement between the P51 and Iran of November 24 2013 fails to end its enrichment program. Israel and the world now know that America truly is a paper tiger at this time.
The forth concern of Jerusalem was the discovery that the United States had been spying on its ally intercepting communications between then Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Ehud Barakx in 2009 and 2010 as well as between Barak and his Chief of Staff Yoni Koren.xi
Disconcerting at the very least was the discovery that the US secretly has been negotiating with Iran for nearly a year and a half.xii As Lee Smith reportsxiii such a revelation demonstrates that the United States has become an extremely unreliable partner. Smith indicates that the current administration has betrayed the Iranian Resistance organization MeKxiv the Syrian rebels and the Israelis and is indeed intent on cutting a deal with Iran.xv
As Smith puts it the current policy is to apply Smart Power" a phrase coined by Joseph Nye former Assistant Secretary of Defense who authored a text by the same name in 2004. However as Smith points out Nyes theories call for coalition building and careful projection of military power in order to accomplish goals and maintain American interests as opposed to the use of brute power to accomplish the same. The current administration claims to be using Nyes theories but in the MiddleEast theater American powerwhether soft or hardis clearly becoming an illusion. In the year and a quarter years since the Benghazi incident the US has bluffed and played the worst game of poker in a generation. And none are being fooled anymore. The Saudis as Richard Miniter points outxvi feel that they have been betrayed by the American president.
One needs to ask why the United States has decided to flee the Middle East. Smith suggests that American energy independence now permits us to leave that troubled regionxvii. But cutting a deal with Iran only makes sensetwisted as it isif there is something to gain from it. Seeing as how the sanctions were beginning to pinch the Iranian economy so tightly that its collapse was possible next year we need ask why the administration was willing to ease them in return for a vague promise to restrain enrichment. The only logical explanation is that Obama and his advisors fear Chinese expansionism and hope to turn Iran into an ally against the Red Dragon so as to encircle and contain it.
The Obama administration has indicated for quite some time that it wishes to turn more of its attention to the Pacific and Far Eastxviii. Obama in his naivet thinks that he is going to be a second Nixon solving problems by courting Iran to counter China just as Nixon courted China to counter the Soviet Union. Rather than seeing that his appeasement of Iran is repeating Chamberlins mistake of 1938 Obama seems to thinks that he is Nixon in 1972. The problem is that Iran is a theocracy; Khamenei believes that Allah commands him to battle the West and spread the Shiite message. We are not dealing with Iranian nationalist expansionism but rather with Shiite fundamentalist millennialism. Khamenei like Hitler believes that his belief system is destined to rule the world. Allowing the Iranian regime to gain nuclear weapons doesnt mean that Iran will now become a responsible world power; it means that worldwide terrorism will be going on steroids. Smith understands this fact as do the Israelis and the Saudis.
Instead of reining in our deficit spending habit so as to stop selling our country to the Chinese Obama is trying to keep China dependent on its economic investment in America. Our children had better start studying Chinese if Obama succeeds in continuing his policies. But before we get too adept at Mandarin we had better be prepared for dealing with nuclear threats from Tehran along with those from North Koreas Kim Jong-Un.