Now that Democrats control the top offices in Arizona — the governorship, other statewide offices and both chambers of the Arizona Legislature — what changes will the new leadership bring? When Kari Lake ran for governor in Arizona in 2022, one of her slogans was “Don’t California my Arizona.” We can look at California’s progression to a blue state for clues.
There is significant lawfare in California by Democrats against Republicans, which will likely ramp up in Arizona. President Donald Trump’s former attorney John Eastman, the top constitutional legal scholar on the right in the country, was disbarred over his work helping Trump look into the 2020 election. David Daleiden, the pro-life activist who released undercover videos of Planned Parenthood, was prosecuted by the California Attorney General’s office. Attorney General Rob Bonta’s office sued or threatened school districts that adopted parental notification policies regarding students’ gender identity.
The number of homeless will increase. California now has the sixth highest homeless rate in the country, despite spending billions on the problem. About 37% use illegal drugs at least 3 times per week.
California became a sanctuary state for illegal immigrants. State law restricts state and local law enforcement from using their resources for federal immigration enforcement, which will likely be implemented in Arizona. FAIR found that illegal immigrants were incarcerated in California prisons at twice the rate of the population.
FAIR also reported that illegal immigrants cost California taxpayers $23 to $31 million each year, with education, healthcare (including Medi-Cal) and public assistance as the largest costs. City Journal and the Manhattan Institute estimated that California spent at least $11 billion in the most recent fiscal year on a broader “shadow welfare system” for illegal immigrants. This includes cash assistance programs, college grants, rental help, smartphones and other state-funded benefits.
Arizona’s requirements to show ID at the polls and proof of citizenship to register to vote in state elections will likely be eliminated like California.
The minimum wage will increase. It currently is set to be $15.65 per hour in Arizona beginning next year, whereas California’s minimum wage is increasing to $17.40 per hour.
Expect tax hikes in order to spend more on public education. Studies found that in California, high per-pupil spending has not consistently translated into top-tier outcomes relative to costs. California’s sales tax is 7.25% compared to Arizona’s 5.6%. Arizona has a flat income tax of 2.5%, while California’s income tax is progressive, from 1% to 12.3%, with a 1% Mental Health Services Tax for those making over $1 million, a 13.3% rate. The Tax Foundation State Tax Competitiveness Index ranked Arizona 17th among the states, and California 49th.
Spending growth in California has far outpaced population growth, with deficits recurring despite high taxes; billionaire wealth taxes or similar proposals.
Strict energy and climate change policies were implemented in California. Environmental restrictions on storage, conveyance and forest thinning have been linked by critics to agricultural impacts, higher food costs and more severe wildfire risks in some analyses.
California’s zoning laws severely restricted new housing. As a result, building costs for comparable apartments run roughly 2.5 times higher than in Texas, and California has the nation’s highest housing costs.
California reduced penalties for crimes. Businesses ceased attempting to stop shoplifters, due to a combination of reducing the penalty for stealing $950 or less of goods and not enough law enforcement.
Rioting will increase in Arizona. California has experienced violent protests at its universities, particularly over Israel and Gaza. At one UCLA protest, there are estimates of 210-270 people arrested.
DEI will expand in government. California state agencies have equity-focused policies, executive orders requiring equity analysis in budgeting/planning, and internal DEI frameworks.
If there is another health panic like COVID, restrictions will be far more severe in Arizona. California restricted many activities to only people who got the COVID jab. Healthcare employees and university students were required to get it, and many K-12 schools did as well.
As a result of all these progressive policies, California is experiencing a flood of people leaving the state. Those leaving lean conservative, while the smaller number moving in lean to the left. Many business headquarters have fled the state, including Elon Musk’s Tesla, X and SpaceX. Others are Chevron, Oracle, McKesson, Charles Schwab, Hewlett Packard, CBRE, AECOM, Palantir, Realtor.com, Yamaha Motor and John Paul Mitchell Systems.