Preface
The Mainstream Media has been trying to induce the idea that the 2018 midterm elections would bring the Democrats the most-awaited shift in power and their majority in Congress based on two factors: the so-called Democratic „blue wave" and the midterm historic patterns.
I beg to differ.
As to the „blue wave" there are two clarification points to be made.
First there is no „blue" wave. I resent this premise. Democrats dont belong to any „blue" party simply because their party is the „red" party. This big mess with the party-color change popularized in 2000 by the late Tim Russert (God rest his soul) is something I am not going to put up with.
Second there is no „wave". While polls in December 2017 gave Democrats a double-digit advantage in the generic ballot some of that early momentum starts to disappear with midterm primaries underway on the background of booming economic growth a reality admitted even by leftist publications like „Vox".
As to the midterm historic patterns studies showed that indeed in most of the cases the presidents party almost always loses Congress seats (92 for the House seats and 73 for the Senate seats since the end of the Civil War).
Again two clarification points.
One: this does not automatically turn into a shift of power between parties.
And two: there can be factors of an exceptional nature (e.g. the backlash against the impeachment of President Clinton or the 9/11 attacks for President George W. Bush) that actually help the party in power to pick up seats in both chambers.
Other studies more realistic based on the final generic-ballot polls suggested that the apparent statistical advantage that the Democrats seem to be enjoying currently may translate in Democrats falling far short of what they need to regain control of the Congress or at best in Democrats being about a „50-50 proposition to take back" one or both Congress chambers.
As far as I am concerned President Trump has broken many patterns so far. So in spite of what all the Mainstream Media is striving to demonstrate I will repeat my prediction that I made on October 19 2016 about the presidential elections of November 8 2016 and published for the first time on October 22 the same year.
I am attaching that prediction below as a refresher for the Mainstream Media who doesnt want to learn its lesson.
*
„The Night of the Comet"
Now that the year-long political beauty pageant they call presidential debate cycle finally came to an end on October 19 this is what will happen in the remaining two weeks or so before the Grand Coronation Night of November 8 called Election Day.
The Candidates
Trump will continue his popularity rallies gathering a couple of dozen thousands of supporters or even more where he will be explaining the obvious - that America will be great again provided that the American people care to detour from the Obama and Clintons cul-de-sac. That they are willing to genuinely engage themselves in an act of profound reparation of a broken corrupt and free-falling society. And that they truly desire to force a comeback to the American traditional values.
Hillary Clinton on the other hand will continue undisturbed to seek shelter in her Chappaqua nursing home sending her surrogates and cronies to campaign for her all over the place. She will be fully assured that the liberal mainstream media together with the hordes of bipartisan establishment activists and obfuscated conservatives" will propel her toward a pre-announced landslide victory. Occasionally she will appear in friendly milieus comfortably sitting on soft plush sofas chit-chatting with her fan club scribblers who call themselves journalists or comics acting as talk show hosts. Or she will consistently support herself from sturdy podiums in 200-or-so-people gatherings she calls rallies." She will brag robotically bobble-heading with scripted jokes about - you know" that "Stronger Together" thing. Meaning yall and her. Or about what else Trump privately whispered decades ago about women currently searching for instant fame weeks before the elections.
The Mainstream Media
Meanwhile the plethora of talking heads will continue to reshape their own narrative about whatever things Donald Trump SAID whenever as a private citizen: the tax deductions Putins sympathy Alicia Machados antipathy the allegedly groped lady on a plane in the 1980s Trumps intent to take a closer look to possible election frauds...
They will continue to ignore or spin what Hillary Clinton DID (wrongly or illegally) as an elected or appointed official: Hillarycare Vincent Fosters "official" suicide Travelgate Filegate the Lewinsky affair the Chinese donations the Russian reset" button the Haiti get-rich-quick schemes the lucrative paid speeches the Arab Spring Benghazi the private server the quid pro quos...
And of course they will put the blame for all these revelations on the vast right-wing conspiracy" and the Russians.
They will also continue to debate zealously about the national-flagged colors of Hillarys pantsuits on various occasions her over-rehearsed alleged gotcha phrases the jab-trading at the Al Smith dinner the First-Female-President ballad and her (no-legacy) 30-year experience.
The Pollsters
They will continue to provide surveys with leftward polling based on previous models from the 2012 and 2014 elections that sample Democrat Republican and independent registered voters" in 45-35-20-percent ratios instead of sampling likely voters in 35-35-30-percent ratios.
They will not tell you about the percentages of independents" and undecideds." Nor about how many Democrat-leaning independents will vote Republican (although the primaries have given you a hint of that). Nor even about how many incumbent-leaning undecideds will stay home compared with the newcomer-leaning undecideds who will actually show up and vote.
And everything will go nice and smooth. Until The Night of the Comet.
The Turnout
Turnout is not known by pundits nor designed by pollsters and it will hit hard. The year 2016 is The Year of the Insurgency. And election night will be The Night of the Comet.
At the end of the day the pundits and pollsters magic crystal ball that has helped so many times the pundits to go wrong about Trump will shatter. All of those responsible for creating parallel realities will have to pick up the shards from the floor. They will scratch their heads with amazement asking themselves what the heck just happened.
We know. We have witnessed this before. Just ask one-term president Jimmy Carter about November 4 1980 or Tom Brokaws Florida declared winner" Al Gore about November 8 2000 or the non-Brexiteers across the pond about June 23 2016.
They have witnessed comets coming too.
NOTE A version of the article was published previously in AMERICAN THINKER.
TIBERIU DIANU has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.
*****
Preface
The Mainstream Media has been trying to induce the idea that the 2018 midterm elections would bring the Democrats the most-awaited shift in power and their majority in Congress based on two factors: the so-called Democratic „blue wave" and the midterm historic patterns.
I beg to differ.
As to the „blue wave" there are two clarification points to be made.
First there is no „blue" wave. I resent this premise. Democrats dont belong to any „blue" party simply because their party is the „red" party. This big mess with the party-color change popularized in 2000 by the late Tim Russert (God rest his soul) is something I am not going to put up with.
Second there is no „wave". While polls in December 2017 gave Democrats a double-digit advantage in the generic ballot some of that early momentum starts to disappear with midterm primaries underway on the background of booming economic growth a reality admitted even by leftist publications like „Vox".
As to the midterm historic patterns studies showed that indeed in most of the cases the presidents party almost always loses Congress seats (92 for the House seats and 73 for the Senate seats since the end of the Civil War).
Again two clarification points.
One: this does not automatically turn into a shift of power between parties.
And two: there can be factors of an exceptional nature (e.g. the backlash against the impeachment of President Clinton or the 9/11 attacks for President George W. Bush) that actually help the party in power to pick up seats in both chambers.
Other studies more realistic based on the final generic-ballot polls suggested that the apparent statistical advantage that the Democrats seem to be enjoying currently may translate in Democrats falling far short of what they need to regain control of the Congress or at best in Democrats being about a „50-50 proposition to take back" one or both Congress chambers.
As far as I am concerned President Trump has broken many patterns so far. So in spite of what all the Mainstream Media is striving to demonstrate I will repeat my prediction that I made on October 19 2016 about the presidential elections of November 8 2016 and published for the first time on October 22 the same year.
I am attaching that prediction below as a refresher for the Mainstream Media who doesnt want to learn its lesson.
*
„The Night of the Comet"
Now that the year-long political beauty pageant they call presidential debate cycle finally came to an end on October 19 this is what will happen in the remaining two weeks or so before the Grand Coronation Night of November 8 called Election Day.
The Candidates
Trump will continue his popularity rallies gathering a couple of dozen thousands of supporters or even more where he will be explaining the obvious - that America will be great again provided that the American people care to detour from the Obama and Clintons cul-de-sac. That they are willing to genuinely engage themselves in an act of profound reparation of a broken corrupt and free-falling society. And that they truly desire to force a comeback to the American traditional values.
Hillary Clinton on the other hand will continue undisturbed to seek shelter in her Chappaqua nursing home sending her surrogates and cronies to campaign for her all over the place. She will be fully assured that the liberal mainstream media together with the hordes of bipartisan establishment activists and obfuscated conservatives" will propel her toward a pre-announced landslide victory. Occasionally she will appear in friendly milieus comfortably sitting on soft plush sofas chit-chatting with her fan club scribblers who call themselves journalists or comics acting as talk show hosts. Or she will consistently support herself from sturdy podiums in 200-or-so-people gatherings she calls rallies." She will brag robotically bobble-heading with scripted jokes about - you know" that "Stronger Together" thing. Meaning yall and her. Or about what else Trump privately whispered decades ago about women currently searching for instant fame weeks before the elections.
The Mainstream Media
Meanwhile the plethora of talking heads will continue to reshape their own narrative about whatever things Donald Trump SAID whenever as a private citizen: the tax deductions Putins sympathy Alicia Machados antipathy the allegedly groped lady on a plane in the 1980s Trumps intent to take a closer look to possible election frauds...
They will continue to ignore or spin what Hillary Clinton DID (wrongly or illegally) as an elected or appointed official: Hillarycare Vincent Fosters "official" suicide Travelgate Filegate the Lewinsky affair the Chinese donations the Russian reset" button the Haiti get-rich-quick schemes the lucrative paid speeches the Arab Spring Benghazi the private server the quid pro quos...
And of course they will put the blame for all these revelations on the vast right-wing conspiracy" and the Russians.
They will also continue to debate zealously about the national-flagged colors of Hillarys pantsuits on various occasions her over-rehearsed alleged gotcha phrases the jab-trading at the Al Smith dinner the First-Female-President ballad and her (no-legacy) 30-year experience.
The Pollsters
They will continue to provide surveys with leftward polling based on previous models from the 2012 and 2014 elections that sample Democrat Republican and independent registered voters" in 45-35-20-percent ratios instead of sampling likely voters in 35-35-30-percent ratios.
They will not tell you about the percentages of independents" and undecideds." Nor about how many Democrat-leaning independents will vote Republican (although the primaries have given you a hint of that). Nor even about how many incumbent-leaning undecideds will stay home compared with the newcomer-leaning undecideds who will actually show up and vote.
And everything will go nice and smooth. Until The Night of the Comet.
The Turnout
Turnout is not known by pundits nor designed by pollsters and it will hit hard. The year 2016 is The Year of the Insurgency. And election night will be The Night of the Comet.
At the end of the day the pundits and pollsters magic crystal ball that has helped so many times the pundits to go wrong about Trump will shatter. All of those responsible for creating parallel realities will have to pick up the shards from the floor. They will scratch their heads with amazement asking themselves what the heck just happened.
We know. We have witnessed this before. Just ask one-term president Jimmy Carter about November 4 1980 or Tom Brokaws Florida declared winner" Al Gore about November 8 2000 or the non-Brexiteers across the pond about June 23 2016.
They have witnessed comets coming too.
NOTE A version of the article was published previously in AMERICAN THINKER.
TIBERIU DIANU has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.
*****
