Right now in response to what is routinely called and viewed as an epidemic of the coronavirus most states in the country have enacted increasingly severe restrictions on the movements and daily lives of their citizenry to halt the spread of the virus. Not wanting to be seen as sleeping on a crisis and letting hundreds of thousands or even millions die on their watch politicians are jumping to do something anything to fix the problem. Others are refusing to let a crisis go to waste to get all of their political desires no matter how unconnected to the virus. In a panic citizens have surrendered a hereto unknown power to their government to completely forbid their movements and confine them to their homes. Tens of millions have been put out of work and the economy essentially shut down by overzealous politicians spreading misery to virtually every person in the country. Everyday we find some new limit on our outdoor movement in response to the current crisis.
While there have been a few lonely voice on the fringe asking about the efficacy and the cost-benefit relationship of the restrictions these voices are largely ignored not just by the political elites but by the public at large. Given the dire consequences to the entire public it is worth analyzing these measures something everyone in a position of power or scrutiny seems unwilling to do. Are they in fact necessary? What if anything should be done and what should it be? Do the measures in place show any measurable success and are they worth the cost they entail? These are not academic questions they are basic ones that should be asked BEFORE acting not after as they have real world effects on real world people. Taking the wrong action is often worse than not acting at all.
Though even the most skeptical critic seems to accept that some measures just not the ones we are taking are warranted here the actual data does not support the need for any action. The worst case scenerio mortality rate is 1 which sounds dire but is far less significant than other diseases we have encountered that did not get such a response. Moreover the mortality rate is compiled by taking the number of reported cases where people are hospitalized and listing how many die. Yet this ignores a simple fact the overwhelming majority of infected do not show symptoms severe enough to report to the hospital. This skew the number up significantly. Under such counting measures the flu has an almost 10 fatality rate something we know is not the case. The most conservative estimate is that only half of the infected report. (See: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html) This cuts the mortality rate in half. If the percentage is higher such as the more touted 80 figure (https://health.clevelandclinic.org/studies-show-carriers-with-mild-or-no-symptoms-are-key-part-of-covid-19-spread/) then the mortality rate is only a fraction of what is reported and corona is less deadly than the flu. Not more. Moreover while the media hype up the figure of nearly 12000 deaths a closer look shows that no such number has actually been claimed by the virus. According to the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ) currently every person in the United States including those who have clearly and obviously died of another condition but have covid are being listed as covid deaths. Exact numbers are unavailable but the underlying fact remains the death toll is not 12000. It is lower. It is worth noting that the same overreporting has routinely occured in the past. At the time of the swine flu epidemic the reported death rate was 5. As the above shows after the panic died down it was quietly lowered to the correct figure of .02.
Put simply the corona scare itself is overhyped. Coronavirus deaths are limited almost exclusively to the elderly and the infirm who are at risk of every transmittable disease causing complications to their already compromised systems. Viewing the true picture shows that we are in essence shutting down all of life based on a variation on the common cold. With such a low danger to the public burdens of any kind are difficult to justify. For the families involved this is a tragedy of course yet this is true of deaths of all kinds. We do not disembowel all of civil society to prevent gun violence drunk driving domestic abuse or any of the other more significant social ills affecting the citizens. Cancer obesity related diseases HPV and AIDS claim exponentially higher numbers of people yet we speaking of funding not food bans or quarantine of smokers. These losses are not considered important to anyone outside of the affected in any other case. Only coronavirus deaths are scary.
Balanced against a largely illusory threat to a few thousand are the lives and well beings of hundreds of millions of Americans directly affected by the very real burdens imposed by the responses. Comparing the responses between states which responded early states which waited and states that didnt react at all shows virtually no difference in outcome. This undermines the very claims that things would have been so much worse if no actions were taken as the very states that have not acted at all have similar or better results to those jumping at shadows. Irrational limitations on how many people can be in stores during what hours (which ironically only serves to increase crowding and the likelihood of diseases spreading contrary to the stated goals) have made it difficult for people to obtain basic goods and services needed for sanitation and food. It is little comfort that supermarkets and gas stations have been labeled essential and allowed to stay open when the businesses that supply them are shut down. Empty shelves and shortages of food and toilet paper are the predictible consequence of government actions. The inability to eat inside restaurants has created the illusion of safety without any corresponding benefits as the same viruses remain on the paper money and products handled by an increasingly smaller number of employees again concentrating the populus and increasing the possibility of mass infection. Schools and daycares have closed leaving children without basic care and food during the day for parents who still work. This imposes significant risks to vulnerable parties. This doesnt even count the educational and emotional costs to children of absense and isolation.
For those in closed businesses they are left without the means to pay for basic necessities. Despite the poo-pooing of mere economic concerns the basic point that all essentials cost money is conveniently overlooked. Food is not free; rent checks cost money. Without the means to support themselves people risk homelessness hunger lack of medical care and the like. Government is in some cases delaying payment of these bills but they are piling up which will cause significant and lasting economic pain for the entire lower classes. Unfortunately the plight of landlords and business owners is overlooked but the burden to provide free services means that many businesses will not recover from the increased burden hurting their employees and customers. Many landlords after all are middle class investors not wealthy businessmen who cannot afford to indefinitely provide free lunches. It is impossible to seperate the health and welfare of the citizen from the economic means which allow him to take care of that health and welfare. Far from unimportant these concerns are the heart of life itself.
Those who have needed medical treatment delayed risk complications from far more serious ailments like cancer heart disease and more. It is no answer to say that emergency surgeries will continue for truly elective matters are rarely conducted in hospitals and even cancer treatments are being redesignated non-necessary (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/825937343/as-coronavirus-strains-hospitals-cancer-patients-face-treatment-delays-uncertain and https://www.propublica.org/article/cancer-surgeries-and-open-transplants-are-being-put-off-for-coronavirus-can-they-wait). For these people the delay could mean a treatable disease progresses to terminal or the surgery becomes more dangerous due to delay. This shift in resources alone will kill more than the disease itself. These hundreds of thousands of cancelled and delays affect their victims as much as any virus but their stories are left forgotten. Those who will suffer depression and mental illness due to the losses imposed and long term quarantine are also forgotten. This creates a greater risk of loss of life than the most dire predictions of the coronavirus. Risking hundreds of thousands to save thousands cannot be justified even accepting the most dire predictions.
Perhaps most importantly it is worth noting that the crisis response has forever altered the balance between the government and citizen. If the government can redefine a crisis to include any common cold and shut down society indefinately then the daily life of the citizen the ability to move freely about hinges daily on the unaccountable whim of the powers that be at any given moment. At any moment they may be ordered into their home on penalty of prison simply because the government deems it needed or even convenient. This power to declare shutdowns only done in times of insurrection or riot before and only for very limited periods has been greatly expanded. This increases the state vis a vis the citizen. The individual wanes at the will of the collective state. This is a dangerous precedent and one that can only be abused if left to continue growing.
As it stands there is no sign of government stopping. Minor shutdowns of government buildings for a few days have become month plus long full lockdowns of cities and states. Citizens may only leave their homes for government approved reasons. No one in control has explained what the end game to this is. Creating a cure or vaccine will take months or years. As the restrictions make little sense even in theory their lack of success is viewed as a need for more measures from the people who cannot come up with effective responses. Yet the virus will never go away. Without exposure natural resistance will never develop. Society cannot indefinitely remain behind closed doors. So what is the plan? Other than continue what is showing no signs of success so far no coherent plan has been set forward. When the lives of millions hang in the balance this simply isnt good enough. The dangers of risking a few more deaths from corona pale to the dangers of the current course. Politicians are simply acting without any thought or care for consequences. That this is common for government does not mean it is acceptable. Causing widespread pain and suffering to avert a handful of deaths is no more rational than cutting off a leg to remove an ingrown toenail. Doing something is not always preferable to nothing if that something is the wrong thing. The cure can absolutely be worse than the disease. Much like a doctor is to first do no harm so too we should demand that our politicians not cause harm to the entire body to fix a localized disease. Continuing to let government hurt us all of us for our own benefit will do nothing good and will cause far more mischief in both the short and long term than letting the disease run its course. This requires that we as citizens hold our government accountable not give into our fear and agree to any half baked cobbled together nonsense that is sold under the guise of taking our liberty to protect our safety. Demanding our government respond with effective measures in proportion to the problem is no radical idea; it is exactly what we expect in every other area of life. Holding those in powers feet to the fire and disobeying draconian and unconstitutional rules if need be is not just the ability but the duty of the people.
Right now in response to what is routinely called and viewed as an epidemic of the coronavirus most states in the country have enacted increasingly severe restrictions on the movements and daily lives of their citizenry to halt the spread of the virus. Not wanting to be seen as sleeping on a crisis and letting hundreds of thousands or even millions die on their watch politicians are jumping to do something anything to fix the problem. Others are refusing to let a crisis go to waste to get all of their political desires no matter how unconnected to the virus. In a panic citizens have surrendered a hereto unknown power to their government to completely forbid their movements and confine them to their homes. Tens of millions have been put out of work and the economy essentially shut down by overzealous politicians spreading misery to virtually every person in the country. Everyday we find some new limit on our outdoor movement in response to the current crisis.
While there have been a few lonely voice on the fringe asking about the efficacy and the cost-benefit relationship of the restrictions these voices are largely ignored not just by the political elites but by the public at large. Given the dire consequences to the entire public it is worth analyzing these measures something everyone in a position of power or scrutiny seems unwilling to do. Are they in fact necessary? What if anything should be done and what should it be? Do the measures in place show any measurable success and are they worth the cost they entail? These are not academic questions they are basic ones that should be asked BEFORE acting not after as they have real world effects on real world people. Taking the wrong action is often worse than not acting at all.
Though even the most skeptical critic seems to accept that some measures just not the ones we are taking are warranted here the actual data does not support the need for any action. The worst case scenerio mortality rate is 1 which sounds dire but is far less significant than other diseases we have encountered that did not get such a response. Moreover the mortality rate is compiled by taking the number of reported cases where people are hospitalized and listing how many die. Yet this ignores a simple fact the overwhelming majority of infected do not show symptoms severe enough to report to the hospital. This skew the number up significantly. Under such counting measures the flu has an almost 10 fatality rate something we know is not the case. The most conservative estimate is that only half of the infected report. (See: https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html) This cuts the mortality rate in half. If the percentage is higher such as the more touted 80 figure (https://health.clevelandclinic.org/studies-show-carriers-with-mild-or-no-symptoms-are-key-part-of-covid-19-spread/) then the mortality rate is only a fraction of what is reported and corona is less deadly than the flu. Not more. Moreover while the media hype up the figure of nearly 12000 deaths a closer look shows that no such number has actually been claimed by the virus. According to the BBC (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ) currently every person in the United States including those who have clearly and obviously died of another condition but have covid are being listed as covid deaths. Exact numbers are unavailable but the underlying fact remains the death toll is not 12000. It is lower. It is worth noting that the same overreporting has routinely occured in the past. At the time of the swine flu epidemic the reported death rate was 5. As the above shows after the panic died down it was quietly lowered to the correct figure of .02.
Put simply the corona scare itself is overhyped. Coronavirus deaths are limited almost exclusively to the elderly and the infirm who are at risk of every transmittable disease causing complications to their already compromised systems. Viewing the true picture shows that we are in essence shutting down all of life based on a variation on the common cold. With such a low danger to the public burdens of any kind are difficult to justify. For the families involved this is a tragedy of course yet this is true of deaths of all kinds. We do not disembowel all of civil society to prevent gun violence drunk driving domestic abuse or any of the other more significant social ills affecting the citizens. Cancer obesity related diseases HPV and AIDS claim exponentially higher numbers of people yet we speaking of funding not food bans or quarantine of smokers. These losses are not considered important to anyone outside of the affected in any other case. Only coronavirus deaths are scary.
Balanced against a largely illusory threat to a few thousand are the lives and well beings of hundreds of millions of Americans directly affected by the very real burdens imposed by the responses. Comparing the responses between states which responded early states which waited and states that didnt react at all shows virtually no difference in outcome. This undermines the very claims that things would have been so much worse if no actions were taken as the very states that have not acted at all have similar or better results to those jumping at shadows. Irrational limitations on how many people can be in stores during what hours (which ironically only serves to increase crowding and the likelihood of diseases spreading contrary to the stated goals) have made it difficult for people to obtain basic goods and services needed for sanitation and food. It is little comfort that supermarkets and gas stations have been labeled essential and allowed to stay open when the businesses that supply them are shut down. Empty shelves and shortages of food and toilet paper are the predictible consequence of government actions. The inability to eat inside restaurants has created the illusion of safety without any corresponding benefits as the same viruses remain on the paper money and products handled by an increasingly smaller number of employees again concentrating the populus and increasing the possibility of mass infection. Schools and daycares have closed leaving children without basic care and food during the day for parents who still work. This imposes significant risks to vulnerable parties. This doesnt even count the educational and emotional costs to children of absense and isolation.
For those in closed businesses they are left without the means to pay for basic necessities. Despite the poo-pooing of mere economic concerns the basic point that all essentials cost money is conveniently overlooked. Food is not free; rent checks cost money. Without the means to support themselves people risk homelessness hunger lack of medical care and the like. Government is in some cases delaying payment of these bills but they are piling up which will cause significant and lasting economic pain for the entire lower classes. Unfortunately the plight of landlords and business owners is overlooked but the burden to provide free services means that many businesses will not recover from the increased burden hurting their employees and customers. Many landlords after all are middle class investors not wealthy businessmen who cannot afford to indefinitely provide free lunches. It is impossible to seperate the health and welfare of the citizen from the economic means which allow him to take care of that health and welfare. Far from unimportant these concerns are the heart of life itself.
Those who have needed medical treatment delayed risk complications from far more serious ailments like cancer heart disease and more. It is no answer to say that emergency surgeries will continue for truly elective matters are rarely conducted in hospitals and even cancer treatments are being redesignated non-necessary (https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/02/825937343/as-coronavirus-strains-hospitals-cancer-patients-face-treatment-delays-uncertain and https://www.propublica.org/article/cancer-surgeries-and-open-transplants-are-being-put-off-for-coronavirus-can-they-wait). For these people the delay could mean a treatable disease progresses to terminal or the surgery becomes more dangerous due to delay. This shift in resources alone will kill more than the disease itself. These hundreds of thousands of cancelled and delays affect their victims as much as any virus but their stories are left forgotten. Those who will suffer depression and mental illness due to the losses imposed and long term quarantine are also forgotten. This creates a greater risk of loss of life than the most dire predictions of the coronavirus. Risking hundreds of thousands to save thousands cannot be justified even accepting the most dire predictions.
Perhaps most importantly it is worth noting that the crisis response has forever altered the balance between the government and citizen. If the government can redefine a crisis to include any common cold and shut down society indefinately then the daily life of the citizen the ability to move freely about hinges daily on the unaccountable whim of the powers that be at any given moment. At any moment they may be ordered into their home on penalty of prison simply because the government deems it needed or even convenient. This power to declare shutdowns only done in times of insurrection or riot before and only for very limited periods has been greatly expanded. This increases the state vis a vis the citizen. The individual wanes at the will of the collective state. This is a dangerous precedent and one that can only be abused if left to continue growing.
As it stands there is no sign of government stopping. Minor shutdowns of government buildings for a few days have become month plus long full lockdowns of cities and states. Citizens may only leave their homes for government approved reasons. No one in control has explained what the end game to this is. Creating a cure or vaccine will take months or years. As the restrictions make little sense even in theory their lack of success is viewed as a need for more measures from the people who cannot come up with effective responses. Yet the virus will never go away. Without exposure natural resistance will never develop. Society cannot indefinitely remain behind closed doors. So what is the plan? Other than continue what is showing no signs of success so far no coherent plan has been set forward. When the lives of millions hang in the balance this simply isnt good enough. The dangers of risking a few more deaths from corona pale to the dangers of the current course. Politicians are simply acting without any thought or care for consequences. That this is common for government does not mean it is acceptable. Causing widespread pain and suffering to avert a handful of deaths is no more rational than cutting off a leg to remove an ingrown toenail. Doing something is not always preferable to nothing if that something is the wrong thing. The cure can absolutely be worse than the disease. Much like a doctor is to first do no harm so too we should demand that our politicians not cause harm to the entire body to fix a localized disease. Continuing to let government hurt us all of us for our own benefit will do nothing good and will cause far more mischief in both the short and long term than letting the disease run its course. This requires that we as citizens hold our government accountable not give into our fear and agree to any half baked cobbled together nonsense that is sold under the guise of taking our liberty to protect our safety. Demanding our government respond with effective measures in proportion to the problem is no radical idea; it is exactly what we expect in every other area of life. Holding those in powers feet to the fire and disobeying draconian and unconstitutional rules if need be is not just the ability but the duty of the people.