THE EVE OF OUR SELF-IMPOSED DESTRUCTION
by Murray Soupcoff
The eastern world it is exploding
Violence flarin bullets loadin
Youre old enough to kill but not for votin
You dont believe in war but whats that gun youre totin
And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin
But you tell me
Over and over and over again my friend
Ah you dont believe
Were on the eve
of destruction
Barry McQuire Eve Of Destruction" July 1965
Happy miserable New Year 20I6 folks. Im writing this column on Wednesday February 2nd and today Im afraid its difficult not to be very pessimistic about the prospects for our world as we know it.
To start off on our voyage to the bottom of any remaining hope for Western civilization North Korea recently claimed it detonated its first-ever hydrogen bomb.
Worse despite initial skepticism on the part of the reality-challenged Obama administration South Korean seismographs recorded a 5.1 magnitude quake centered in North Korea that same night matching the results recorded during North Koreas last nuclear test in 2013.
But that wasnt all the bad news from South Asia that same day.
In particular Chinas yuan currency suffered yet another sharp devaluation overnight (meaning it was worth less in the morning than the previous evening).
Moreover in the offshore (European & North American) currency market the yuan dropped more than twice as much as that.
And what do I think this Chinese currency drop meant?
In my opinion it signaled that the Chinese economy is in even worse shape than even die-hard Peking pessimists" expected.
And related to the many signals that the Chinese economic growth is slowing (meaning a dwindling market for American & European manufacturing & commodity exports to China) the three key American indices continued their early 2016 plunge today:
At the close of the session the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 296 points; the S&P 500 Index was down 36 points; and the NASDAQ exchange was off by a hefty 103 points.
In fact investment-wise its been a truly TERRIBLE BEGINNING to NEW YEAR 2016:
For example the S&P 500s market valuation has plunged by at least $1.04 trillion since the end of 2015 according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
To put that stunning figure in context its like wiping out the combined value of the following tech giants: Google (GOOGLTech30) $508 billion; Facebook (FB Tech30) $281 billion; Intel (INTC Tech30) $154 billion; Netflix (NFLX Tech30) $50 billion; and Yahoo (YHOO Tech30) $29 billion.
The Dows market cap has plunged by $310 billion through Mondays close (again according to S&P Dow Jones Indices). And thats equivalent to ExxonMobil (XOM) $309.5 billion being erased from the index.
The NASDAQ stock exchange the star of 2015 is also off to a terrible start. Its down more than 7 so far in 2016.
And small-cap stocks are getting bludgeoned even more than their larger cousins. The Russell 2000" has already tumbled 7 this year and narrowly avoided being designated a bear market several times in 2016 (being labelled a bear market" signals a 20 decline from previous highs).
No wonder there are lots of signs of rising panic on Wall Street. For example CNNMoneys Fear & Greed Index is now flashing extreme fear" a dramatic reversal from neutral" just three weeks ago.
And why?
Well as one example the fourth-quarter earnings season is expected to reveal the first back-to-back decline in corporate profits since 2009 according to S&P Capital IQ".
And as almost every market watcher knows cheap oil prices are a big driver of shrinking business profits not to mention the recent slump in the stock market (described above).
But its not just oil stocks which are getting ravaged: AutoNation (AN) Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Under Armour (UA) and Chipotle (CMG) are just some of the well-known S&P 500" stocks already down more than 10 this year (can you again say bear market boys & girls?").
In fact less than 10 of the S&P 500 has gained ground in 2016. And some of the early winners dont paint a pretty picture. For example until recently the best Dow performer was Wal-Mart ($WMT) which most analysts claim is benefiting from worries that an economic slowdown in America will force consumers to pinch their pennies.
Still not convinced?
Then how about the transcript of the following CNN News" report filed on January 12th of this year (2016):
Sell everything."
That harrowing advice is from The Royal Bank of Scotland" which has warned of a cataclysmic year" ahead for markets and advised clients to head for the exit.
Do not wait. Do not pass go. Sell everything except high quality bonds" warned Andrew Roberts in a note this week.
He said the banks red flags for 2016 falling oil volatility in China shrinking world trade rising debt weak corporate loans and deflation had all been seen in just the first week of trading.
We think investors should be afraid" he said.
The world is in a global recession" Roberts wrote. This terrible cocktail means investors should now be thinking about getting a return of capital not return on capital."
RBS compares the market mood with that of 2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis.
At least then emerging markets were there to save the world from complete collapse.
According to RBS China cant help this time around let alone any other big emerging market. RBS remains deeply skeptical" that Chinese authorities can right the ship any time soon. It warns that without allowing a massive devaluation of its currency around 20 China can no longer be of help.
Or how about the 2016 stock-market outlook from the point of view of Swiss Americas chairman a perennial optimist who has now completely cashed out of the stock market having sold all his personal holdings in global stocks.
And that is not to mention escalating instability in another quite different sphere international relations (or should we say non-relations).
For example how about Saudi Arabia executing 47 dissidents in one day including a major Shiite (pro-Iranian) cleric and then exchanging military threats with Iran with all of the preceding threatening a future outbreak of Middle East nuclear conflict.
But hey we havent even gotten to the Syrian-immigrant rapefest" in Germany yet to really get you started worrying about the potential end of Western civilization as we know it.
Yes according to news stories in a few brave political incorrect" German newspapers over 1000 Muslim migrants in Cologne began an organized rampage of rape and sexual assault on German women on New Years Eve (ushering in 2016) surrounding the women and then groping and sexually abusing them.
These immigrants unique way of celebrating New Years 2016 was to launch fireworks into crowds and then sexually assault German women caught up in the chaos.
One victim 28 year old Katja L spoke of her nightmarish experience as she tried to make her way to the waiting room of the Cologne railway station with two other girls to meet a boyfriend in the early hours of New Years Day.
She told Der Express a large regional newspaper: When we came out of the station we were very surprised by the group that met us there". She said the group was exclusively young foreign men". Keeping close to her friends they pressed on:
We then walked through this group of men. There was an alley through the men which we walked through. Suddenly I felt a hand on my buttocks then on my breasts in the end I was groped everywhere. It was a nightmare. Although we shouted and beat them the guys did not stop. I was desperate and think I was touched around 100 times in the 200 meters...
Fortunately I wore a jacket and trousers; a skirt would probably have been torn away from me".
Others were less lucky. Police later reluctantly admitted that there had also been rapes" at the Cologne train station that night.
Even more amazing new reports began surfacing that sexual assaults were made against female Muslim residents in housing set up for European migrants pouring into Germany housing set up as part of the countrys refugee (or should we say rapefugee") resettlement efforts.
Or how about the much-tweeted video featured on Shoebat.com" in which a Muslim migrant brags about a devastating 7-man gang rape of young German virgin girl full of dirt and sperm"?
Heres the transcript:
Muslim Rapist: Dude we were seven guys. Some on the floor three on the beds. They were bunk beds. Three were on top three were below. Adim switched off the light and f***ed her. He deflowered her. She was a virgin. You must imagine that! Virgin! And we were still six guys on top of the bed dude. And he: Bang! Bang! And we on top of the And we on top of the bed jumped down she screams and of course she was fighting back and so on. And we had her legs dude. Bang! One held her over there the other over there dude. And than dude: Sinan and the others. One after another dude. Virgin dude! Well done dude! I swear to you. She cried after that she couldnt go on any longer And we like pigs we spit on her. Sperm and dirt all over her. We really got milked.
Cameraman: And you f***ed her in the a** right?
Muslim Rapist: DUDE it was a virgin! And we DESTROYED her with seven guys dude. Did f**k her a**. But not in the a** though."
What a charming though shamelessly honest dude!
But now to complete our brief end-of-the-world odyssey lets again return to our original analysis of the meltdown in todays global stock exchanges.
After all is it really possible that the equivalent of global Armageddon in world-wide stock markets is approaching soon?
Well yes I think so.
And if youre doubtful heres a possible sample of the kind of market phenomena which could become commonplace in the future as illustrated in a Daily Telegraph" news report on imploding European stock markets:
JUST CLICK ONCE ON THE WEB LINK IMMEDIATELY BELOW TO READ THIS INVESTMENT-RELATED NEWS STORY:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/12101482/China-enters-bear-market-prompting-mass-sell-off-in-Europe.html
And if Im correct I believe that more events like this will ultimately impoverish hundreds of millions of innocent investors globally.
And worse still if Im proven correct in my suppositions all expressed in a long stint as an investment columnist with Twitter http://stocktwits.com/MurrayS and until recently with the Globe & Mail" online investment-advice site for its readers these events will then directly or indirectly destroy the savings & livelihoods of millions of unprepared (and unsuspecting) investors globally.
In particular Ive been predicting that global stock markets are going to be metaphorically clobbered as early as winter 2017 as the Fed" is forced to raise interest rates (ending monetary easing" as economists call it).
And based on what I have learned through past research about historical stock-market & economic cycles I do eventually expect a global economic crash of significant proportions one that creates rising costs of living particularly in America along with declining incomes AND soaring tax burdens for most U.S. residents.
And based on what happened historically during previous economic implosions like this we could possibly expect a rise in anti-government sentiments expressed in extremist movements on the political left & right.
Throw in the riots looting and protests which have accompanied similar past economic disasters like this and you have the recipe for social anarchy and push back" by an increasingly authoritarian government using among other initiatives: increasing intimidation of allegedly dangerous" elements (ie political opponents) through the IRS and other justice" agencies.
In other words a world in which President Richard Nixon of Watergate fame would have felt quite comfortable.
And in my biased opinion global Armageddon (as described previously) may be a fact of life in a matter of a few years.
And if Im proven wrong I will be most happy to eat humble pie.
But just a reminder that my unfailing theme recently in my Twitter investment posts" (http://stocktwits.com/MurrayS) has been that a massive stock market crash is inevitably coming in the United States.
And thats despite all the great profits recently experienced by todays reality-denying U.S. stock-market investors profits occurring only because of the continued artificial" low-interest-rate policies created by the Fed (currently led by Janet Yellen).
So my cautionary warning: Hold onto your hats & wallets folks because this is going to be one bumpy ride!
And why?
Because in my opinion when Ms. Yellen metaphorically jams on the brake pedal on quantitative easing heres what I think will inevitably happen:
Global stock markets will crash; and HYPER INFLATION" will wipe out the savings of everyone but greedy crony capitalists like George Soros whose generous contributions (ie political donations) to the Democratic Party have ensured his prosperity.
Hence thanks to Barack Obama Harry Reid Nancy Pelosi & George Soros there will finally be INCOME INEQUALITY in America.
But it will be EQUAL impoverishment for ALL Americans except the privileged & spoiled elitists who inflicted these failed economic policies on us.
And as Ive opined previously in many of my past investment posts:
There is only one political solution to this dismal politically-created economic status quo including sub-par 0.7 annual GDP growth and repeated TRILLION dollar deficits in the U.S.
In the 2016 elections Americans should permanently vote out of office all the Democrat Party bums who created this economic mess!
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION -- MURRAY SOUPCOFF:
Author of Canada 1984 The Year In Review (Lester Orpen)
Co-author (with Rick Salutin & Gary Dunford) of Goodbye Canada (James Lorimer & Associates)
Publisher Liberty North libertarian blog
Publisher of Soupcoff Report investment newsletter
Senior Associate & founding partner of Ian Sone & Associates Ltd Canadas first independent social-research firm as well as original Canadian initiator of (sociological) evaluations of federal and provincial social programs set up to assist Canadas disadvantaged populations
Computer columnist for Globe & Mail Report on Business for 20 years
Co-editor of We Compute Magazine for 7 years.
Producer & head writer Inside From The Outside CBC Radio & TV
Currently retired but still active investor and (until recently) contributor to the Globe Mail online investment blog.
Email address: [email protected]
THE EVE OF OUR SELF-IMPOSED DESTRUCTION
by Murray Soupcoff
The eastern world it is exploding
Violence flarin bullets loadin
Youre old enough to kill but not for votin
You dont believe in war but whats that gun youre totin
And even the Jordan River has bodies floatin
But you tell me
Over and over and over again my friend
Ah you dont believe
Were on the eve
of destruction
Barry McQuire Eve Of Destruction" July 1965
Happy miserable New Year 20I6 folks. Im writing this column on Wednesday February 2nd and today Im afraid its difficult not to be very pessimistic about the prospects for our world as we know it.
To start off on our voyage to the bottom of any remaining hope for Western civilization North Korea recently claimed it detonated its first-ever hydrogen bomb.
Worse despite initial skepticism on the part of the reality-challenged Obama administration South Korean seismographs recorded a 5.1 magnitude quake centered in North Korea that same night matching the results recorded during North Koreas last nuclear test in 2013.
But that wasnt all the bad news from South Asia that same day.
In particular Chinas yuan currency suffered yet another sharp devaluation overnight (meaning it was worth less in the morning than the previous evening).
Moreover in the offshore (European & North American) currency market the yuan dropped more than twice as much as that.
And what do I think this Chinese currency drop meant?
In my opinion it signaled that the Chinese economy is in even worse shape than even die-hard Peking pessimists" expected.
And related to the many signals that the Chinese economic growth is slowing (meaning a dwindling market for American & European manufacturing & commodity exports to China) the three key American indices continued their early 2016 plunge today:
At the close of the session the Dow Jones Industrial Average was off 296 points; the S&P 500 Index was down 36 points; and the NASDAQ exchange was off by a hefty 103 points.
In fact investment-wise its been a truly TERRIBLE BEGINNING to NEW YEAR 2016:
For example the S&P 500s market valuation has plunged by at least $1.04 trillion since the end of 2015 according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
To put that stunning figure in context its like wiping out the combined value of the following tech giants: Google (GOOGLTech30) $508 billion; Facebook (FB Tech30) $281 billion; Intel (INTC Tech30) $154 billion; Netflix (NFLX Tech30) $50 billion; and Yahoo (YHOO Tech30) $29 billion.
The Dows market cap has plunged by $310 billion through Mondays close (again according to S&P Dow Jones Indices). And thats equivalent to ExxonMobil (XOM) $309.5 billion being erased from the index.
The NASDAQ stock exchange the star of 2015 is also off to a terrible start. Its down more than 7 so far in 2016.
And small-cap stocks are getting bludgeoned even more than their larger cousins. The Russell 2000" has already tumbled 7 this year and narrowly avoided being designated a bear market several times in 2016 (being labelled a bear market" signals a 20 decline from previous highs).
No wonder there are lots of signs of rising panic on Wall Street. For example CNNMoneys Fear & Greed Index is now flashing extreme fear" a dramatic reversal from neutral" just three weeks ago.
And why?
Well as one example the fourth-quarter earnings season is expected to reveal the first back-to-back decline in corporate profits since 2009 according to S&P Capital IQ".
And as almost every market watcher knows cheap oil prices are a big driver of shrinking business profits not to mention the recent slump in the stock market (described above).
But its not just oil stocks which are getting ravaged: AutoNation (AN) Wynn Resorts (WYNN) Under Armour (UA) and Chipotle (CMG) are just some of the well-known S&P 500" stocks already down more than 10 this year (can you again say bear market boys & girls?").
In fact less than 10 of the S&P 500 has gained ground in 2016. And some of the early winners dont paint a pretty picture. For example until recently the best Dow performer was Wal-Mart ($WMT) which most analysts claim is benefiting from worries that an economic slowdown in America will force consumers to pinch their pennies.
Still not convinced?
Then how about the transcript of the following CNN News" report filed on January 12th of this year (2016):
Sell everything."
That harrowing advice is from The Royal Bank of Scotland" which has warned of a cataclysmic year" ahead for markets and advised clients to head for the exit.
Do not wait. Do not pass go. Sell everything except high quality bonds" warned Andrew Roberts in a note this week.
He said the banks red flags for 2016 falling oil volatility in China shrinking world trade rising debt weak corporate loans and deflation had all been seen in just the first week of trading.
We think investors should be afraid" he said.
The world is in a global recession" Roberts wrote. This terrible cocktail means investors should now be thinking about getting a return of capital not return on capital."
RBS compares the market mood with that of 2008 before the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the start of the global financial crisis.
At least then emerging markets were there to save the world from complete collapse.
According to RBS China cant help this time around let alone any other big emerging market. RBS remains deeply skeptical" that Chinese authorities can right the ship any time soon. It warns that without allowing a massive devaluation of its currency around 20 China can no longer be of help.
Or how about the 2016 stock-market outlook from the point of view of Swiss Americas chairman a perennial optimist who has now completely cashed out of the stock market having sold all his personal holdings in global stocks.
And that is not to mention escalating instability in another quite different sphere international relations (or should we say non-relations).
For example how about Saudi Arabia executing 47 dissidents in one day including a major Shiite (pro-Iranian) cleric and then exchanging military threats with Iran with all of the preceding threatening a future outbreak of Middle East nuclear conflict.
But hey we havent even gotten to the Syrian-immigrant rapefest" in Germany yet to really get you started worrying about the potential end of Western civilization as we know it.
Yes according to news stories in a few brave political incorrect" German newspapers over 1000 Muslim migrants in Cologne began an organized rampage of rape and sexual assault on German women on New Years Eve (ushering in 2016) surrounding the women and then groping and sexually abusing them.
These immigrants unique way of celebrating New Years 2016 was to launch fireworks into crowds and then sexually assault German women caught up in the chaos.
One victim 28 year old Katja L spoke of her nightmarish experience as she tried to make her way to the waiting room of the Cologne railway station with two other girls to meet a boyfriend in the early hours of New Years Day.
She told Der Express a large regional newspaper: When we came out of the station we were very surprised by the group that met us there". She said the group was exclusively young foreign men". Keeping close to her friends they pressed on:
We then walked through this group of men. There was an alley through the men which we walked through. Suddenly I felt a hand on my buttocks then on my breasts in the end I was groped everywhere. It was a nightmare. Although we shouted and beat them the guys did not stop. I was desperate and think I was touched around 100 times in the 200 meters...
Fortunately I wore a jacket and trousers; a skirt would probably have been torn away from me".
Others were less lucky. Police later reluctantly admitted that there had also been rapes" at the Cologne train station that night.
Even more amazing new reports began surfacing that sexual assaults were made against female Muslim residents in housing set up for European migrants pouring into Germany housing set up as part of the countrys refugee (or should we say rapefugee") resettlement efforts.
Or how about the much-tweeted video featured on Shoebat.com" in which a Muslim migrant brags about a devastating 7-man gang rape of young German virgin girl full of dirt and sperm"?
Heres the transcript:
Muslim Rapist: Dude we were seven guys. Some on the floor three on the beds. They were bunk beds. Three were on top three were below. Adim switched off the light and f***ed her. He deflowered her. She was a virgin. You must imagine that! Virgin! And we were still six guys on top of the bed dude. And he: Bang! Bang! And we on top of the And we on top of the bed jumped down she screams and of course she was fighting back and so on. And we had her legs dude. Bang! One held her over there the other over there dude. And than dude: Sinan and the others. One after another dude. Virgin dude! Well done dude! I swear to you. She cried after that she couldnt go on any longer And we like pigs we spit on her. Sperm and dirt all over her. We really got milked.
Cameraman: And you f***ed her in the a** right?
Muslim Rapist: DUDE it was a virgin! And we DESTROYED her with seven guys dude. Did f**k her a**. But not in the a** though."
What a charming though shamelessly honest dude!
But now to complete our brief end-of-the-world odyssey lets again return to our original analysis of the meltdown in todays global stock exchanges.
After all is it really possible that the equivalent of global Armageddon in world-wide stock markets is approaching soon?
Well yes I think so.
And if youre doubtful heres a possible sample of the kind of market phenomena which could become commonplace in the future as illustrated in a Daily Telegraph" news report on imploding European stock markets:
JUST CLICK ONCE ON THE WEB LINK IMMEDIATELY BELOW TO READ THIS INVESTMENT-RELATED NEWS STORY:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/markets/12101482/China-enters-bear-market-prompting-mass-sell-off-in-Europe.html
And if Im correct I believe that more events like this will ultimately impoverish hundreds of millions of innocent investors globally.
And worse still if Im proven correct in my suppositions all expressed in a long stint as an investment columnist with Twitter http://stocktwits.com/MurrayS and until recently with the Globe & Mail" online investment-advice site for its readers these events will then directly or indirectly destroy the savings & livelihoods of millions of unprepared (and unsuspecting) investors globally.
In particular Ive been predicting that global stock markets are going to be metaphorically clobbered as early as winter 2017 as the Fed" is forced to raise interest rates (ending monetary easing" as economists call it).
And based on what I have learned through past research about historical stock-market & economic cycles I do eventually expect a global economic crash of significant proportions one that creates rising costs of living particularly in America along with declining incomes AND soaring tax burdens for most U.S. residents.
And based on what happened historically during previous economic implosions like this we could possibly expect a rise in anti-government sentiments expressed in extremist movements on the political left & right.
Throw in the riots looting and protests which have accompanied similar past economic disasters like this and you have the recipe for social anarchy and push back" by an increasingly authoritarian government using among other initiatives: increasing intimidation of allegedly dangerous" elements (ie political opponents) through the IRS and other justice" agencies.
In other words a world in which President Richard Nixon of Watergate fame would have felt quite comfortable.
And in my biased opinion global Armageddon (as described previously) may be a fact of life in a matter of a few years.
And if Im proven wrong I will be most happy to eat humble pie.
But just a reminder that my unfailing theme recently in my Twitter investment posts" (http://stocktwits.com/MurrayS) has been that a massive stock market crash is inevitably coming in the United States.
And thats despite all the great profits recently experienced by todays reality-denying U.S. stock-market investors profits occurring only because of the continued artificial" low-interest-rate policies created by the Fed (currently led by Janet Yellen).
So my cautionary warning: Hold onto your hats & wallets folks because this is going to be one bumpy ride!
And why?
Because in my opinion when Ms. Yellen metaphorically jams on the brake pedal on quantitative easing heres what I think will inevitably happen:
Global stock markets will crash; and HYPER INFLATION" will wipe out the savings of everyone but greedy crony capitalists like George Soros whose generous contributions (ie political donations) to the Democratic Party have ensured his prosperity.
Hence thanks to Barack Obama Harry Reid Nancy Pelosi & George Soros there will finally be INCOME INEQUALITY in America.
But it will be EQUAL impoverishment for ALL Americans except the privileged & spoiled elitists who inflicted these failed economic policies on us.
And as Ive opined previously in many of my past investment posts:
There is only one political solution to this dismal politically-created economic status quo including sub-par 0.7 annual GDP growth and repeated TRILLION dollar deficits in the U.S.
In the 2016 elections Americans should permanently vote out of office all the Democrat Party bums who created this economic mess!
BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION -- MURRAY SOUPCOFF:
Author of Canada 1984 The Year In Review (Lester Orpen)
Co-author (with Rick Salutin & Gary Dunford) of Goodbye Canada (James Lorimer & Associates)
Publisher Liberty North libertarian blog
Publisher of Soupcoff Report investment newsletter
Senior Associate & founding partner of Ian Sone & Associates Ltd Canadas first independent social-research firm as well as original Canadian initiator of (sociological) evaluations of federal and provincial social programs set up to assist Canadas disadvantaged populations
Computer columnist for Globe & Mail Report on Business for 20 years
Co-editor of We Compute Magazine for 7 years.
Producer & head writer Inside From The Outside CBC Radio & TV
Currently retired but still active investor and (until recently) contributor to the Globe Mail online investment blog.
Email address: [email protected]