The GOP was not in a partying mood for Cleveland Ohio between July 18 and 21 2016.
This was due to several factors.
1. The Kasich Non-Factor
There were ups and downs at a GOP convention in a city where a candidate (Kasich) won the state but lost his party nomination to Donald Trump. Kasich was the champion of a contested convention." But as the main organizer of his partys most important event he said he would be pretty much invisible. He said he was very unlikely" to appear or speak at the convention let alone to endorse Trump. Remember the pledge you signed to endorse the party nominee Mr. Governor? Or the fact that you were not the nominee made change your mind?!
Yet Kasich was to an extent involved" in the event. As the state governor he remained responsible of the agencies involved in security (police patrols local troops and the state National Guard) and in their coordination with the federal law enforcement agencies. But as he put it: It is odd isnt it? … Its going to be strange."
Heres a message for Kasich. Change your strange" attitude Mr. Governor and oddity will stop.
2. The GOP Establishment Super-Factor
This could play well more or less on various levels.
2.1. The partys moral support. To mention this as a factor its odd indeed (to quote Kasich again). In the past all the party nominees took it for granted like a fait accompli. Neither Bob Dole nor John McCain or Mitt Romney were the first choice for many conservative electors. But in the end they were supported as party nominees because of their majority of bound party delegates.
Why then put Donald Trump to a different test? Just because he doesnt belong to the partys establishment or he isnt the Bush familys close friend? Or maybe because he might actually win and make Dole McCain Romney and Jeb Bush look totally irrelevant?!
But Bob Dole attended the Convention and supported Trump. And this was commendable and showed that the party is still united and not secretively nostalgic for a Hillary Clintons much trumpeted win. Also both the then Republican National Committee Chairman Reinhold Richard Reince" Priebus and the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Davis Ryan appealed to the party members to support Donald Trump. In the end the Convention showed like a barometer how down-to-earth or out-of-touch the GOP was as a party.
2.2. The partys financial support. Hours before the Convention many donors and fundraisers were still uneasy and didnt know how to relate to Trumps persona his unorthodox way of being and his blunt practices to fix things.
It is also true that the Trump campaign did little to attract them. But if you play conventional in a totally unconventional year you may end up losing big!
There were some major corporations that due to the Hispanic Muslim and womens group opposition did not sponsor the Cleveland convention. They did the same with Mitt Romney in 2012. Among them: Ford JP Morgan Chase Motorola UPS and Wells Fargo. This can trigger some repercussion effects after the presidential elections.
Others decided not to attend being under the pressure of various activist groups (like Apple and HP). As sponsors they chose to play a dangerous game with their customers anyway.
Some other companies decided to attend but they kept a low profile (like AT&T Facebook and Microsoft). Obviously they didnt want to be ignored later by Trump as an election winner. Which looks pretty much like Phil Silvers Sgt. Bilko who recovered his lost money in gambling making the winners urge him to give him the money back.
2.3. The partys political support. There are two issues here. Issue number one: the non-attenders. Some party members didnt even bother to justify their absence. Jeb Bush Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham are typical examples. Others claimed they were busy campaigning for re-election in their states. Among them were John McCain of Arizona Marco Rubio of Florida and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Finally others chose to entertain themselves somewhere else. Tom Davis of Virginia attended the Dodgers game in Washington DC while his bon vivant neighbor the Maryland Governor Larry Hogan indulged in some juicy shrimps on the Eastern Shore.
Issue number two: the Never Trumpers. They hoped they were able to nominate anybody else but Trump. They were unsuccessful. On the July 14 session the Republican National Convention Rules Committee passed an 87-to-12 measure to keep delegates bound. The committee denied the Never Trumpers proposal to unbind convention delegates. Consequently these delegates bound to Trump by the primary election results were not allowed to vote their conscience" against him and his electors.
This was fair. Theoretically this minority camp could have still obtained a vote permitting a minority report to be debated on the convention floor. In practical terms this was an almost impossible mission since it required an improbable change in voting patterns on the RNC Rules Committee.
3. The Mike Pence Surging Factor
Many would have preferred a more energetic and charismatic person as a vice-presidential pick. Somebody like Sarah Palin Chris Christie or Newt Gingrich. During the 2008 summer presidential campaign Palin was extremely refreshing and eclipsed John McCain who was a low-energy man (to quote Trump).
But maybe there were other factors weighing in for Mike Pences selection or rather against Pences competitors. For instance Chris Christie put Ivanka Trumps father-in-law in prison for white-collar crimes.
In turn Newt Gingrich with his strong personality could have turned a powerful team into a combustible" one.
The first impression about Mike Pence is that he is both in appearance and conservatism a second Jack Kemp. Both vice-presidential candidates resemble in their anti-abortion and low-taxes stances. However related to immigration Pence opposed the U.S. jus soli (according to which all people born on the U.S. soil are citizens) while Kemp advocated immigration reform from some more libertarian stances.
Using Donald Trumps rationale Pence was selected in order to maintain party unity and commitment to the basic Republican principles based on the values of traditional family religion fiscal restraint and bold foreign policies.
Pences personality doesnt seem to generate a surge in voters enthusiasm so Trump will have to continue to rely on himself at this chapter. On the other hand Pence can advise and help Trump maintain a Republican majority in Congress and implement his Make America Great Again!" agenda. To this end Pences 12-year experience in the U.S. Congress can help.
After all its less important that Pence is less charismatic than Sarah Mama Grizzly Palin or less tenacious than Paul RINO Eddie Munster Ryan. Eventually both Palin and Ryan lost their elections as vice-presidents. Its more practical for Pence to be as charismatic" and taciturn as Dick Darth Vader Cheney. Cheney silent and being in an undisclosed location" most of the time ended up as a very effective two-long-term vice-president.
Many Republicans would like to see Pence as the 46th President of the United States after 2024. The Democrats for different reasons would like to see the same thing happening as soon as possible.
NOTE - A version of the article was published previously in CARIBBEAN NEWS NOW!.
Tiberiu Dianu has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.
*****
The GOP was not in a partying mood for Cleveland Ohio between July 18 and 21 2016.
This was due to several factors.
1. The Kasich Non-Factor
There were ups and downs at a GOP convention in a city where a candidate (Kasich) won the state but lost his party nomination to Donald Trump. Kasich was the champion of a contested convention." But as the main organizer of his partys most important event he said he would be pretty much invisible. He said he was very unlikely" to appear or speak at the convention let alone to endorse Trump. Remember the pledge you signed to endorse the party nominee Mr. Governor? Or the fact that you were not the nominee made change your mind?!
Yet Kasich was to an extent involved" in the event. As the state governor he remained responsible of the agencies involved in security (police patrols local troops and the state National Guard) and in their coordination with the federal law enforcement agencies. But as he put it: It is odd isnt it? … Its going to be strange."
Heres a message for Kasich. Change your strange" attitude Mr. Governor and oddity will stop.
2. The GOP Establishment Super-Factor
This could play well more or less on various levels.
2.1. The partys moral support. To mention this as a factor its odd indeed (to quote Kasich again). In the past all the party nominees took it for granted like a fait accompli. Neither Bob Dole nor John McCain or Mitt Romney were the first choice for many conservative electors. But in the end they were supported as party nominees because of their majority of bound party delegates.
Why then put Donald Trump to a different test? Just because he doesnt belong to the partys establishment or he isnt the Bush familys close friend? Or maybe because he might actually win and make Dole McCain Romney and Jeb Bush look totally irrelevant?!
But Bob Dole attended the Convention and supported Trump. And this was commendable and showed that the party is still united and not secretively nostalgic for a Hillary Clintons much trumpeted win. Also both the then Republican National Committee Chairman Reinhold Richard Reince" Priebus and the Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Paul Davis Ryan appealed to the party members to support Donald Trump. In the end the Convention showed like a barometer how down-to-earth or out-of-touch the GOP was as a party.
2.2. The partys financial support. Hours before the Convention many donors and fundraisers were still uneasy and didnt know how to relate to Trumps persona his unorthodox way of being and his blunt practices to fix things.
It is also true that the Trump campaign did little to attract them. But if you play conventional in a totally unconventional year you may end up losing big!
There were some major corporations that due to the Hispanic Muslim and womens group opposition did not sponsor the Cleveland convention. They did the same with Mitt Romney in 2012. Among them: Ford JP Morgan Chase Motorola UPS and Wells Fargo. This can trigger some repercussion effects after the presidential elections.
Others decided not to attend being under the pressure of various activist groups (like Apple and HP). As sponsors they chose to play a dangerous game with their customers anyway.
Some other companies decided to attend but they kept a low profile (like AT&T Facebook and Microsoft). Obviously they didnt want to be ignored later by Trump as an election winner. Which looks pretty much like Phil Silvers Sgt. Bilko who recovered his lost money in gambling making the winners urge him to give him the money back.
2.3. The partys political support. There are two issues here. Issue number one: the non-attenders. Some party members didnt even bother to justify their absence. Jeb Bush Mitt Romney and Lindsey Graham are typical examples. Others claimed they were busy campaigning for re-election in their states. Among them were John McCain of Arizona Marco Rubio of Florida and Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania. Finally others chose to entertain themselves somewhere else. Tom Davis of Virginia attended the Dodgers game in Washington DC while his bon vivant neighbor the Maryland Governor Larry Hogan indulged in some juicy shrimps on the Eastern Shore.
Issue number two: the Never Trumpers. They hoped they were able to nominate anybody else but Trump. They were unsuccessful. On the July 14 session the Republican National Convention Rules Committee passed an 87-to-12 measure to keep delegates bound. The committee denied the Never Trumpers proposal to unbind convention delegates. Consequently these delegates bound to Trump by the primary election results were not allowed to vote their conscience" against him and his electors.
This was fair. Theoretically this minority camp could have still obtained a vote permitting a minority report to be debated on the convention floor. In practical terms this was an almost impossible mission since it required an improbable change in voting patterns on the RNC Rules Committee.
3. The Mike Pence Surging Factor
Many would have preferred a more energetic and charismatic person as a vice-presidential pick. Somebody like Sarah Palin Chris Christie or Newt Gingrich. During the 2008 summer presidential campaign Palin was extremely refreshing and eclipsed John McCain who was a low-energy man (to quote Trump).
But maybe there were other factors weighing in for Mike Pences selection or rather against Pences competitors. For instance Chris Christie put Ivanka Trumps father-in-law in prison for white-collar crimes.
In turn Newt Gingrich with his strong personality could have turned a powerful team into a combustible" one.
The first impression about Mike Pence is that he is both in appearance and conservatism a second Jack Kemp. Both vice-presidential candidates resemble in their anti-abortion and low-taxes stances. However related to immigration Pence opposed the U.S. jus soli (according to which all people born on the U.S. soil are citizens) while Kemp advocated immigration reform from some more libertarian stances.
Using Donald Trumps rationale Pence was selected in order to maintain party unity and commitment to the basic Republican principles based on the values of traditional family religion fiscal restraint and bold foreign policies.
Pences personality doesnt seem to generate a surge in voters enthusiasm so Trump will have to continue to rely on himself at this chapter. On the other hand Pence can advise and help Trump maintain a Republican majority in Congress and implement his Make America Great Again!" agenda. To this end Pences 12-year experience in the U.S. Congress can help.
After all its less important that Pence is less charismatic than Sarah Mama Grizzly Palin or less tenacious than Paul RINO Eddie Munster Ryan. Eventually both Palin and Ryan lost their elections as vice-presidents. Its more practical for Pence to be as charismatic" and taciturn as Dick Darth Vader Cheney. Cheney silent and being in an undisclosed location" most of the time ended up as a very effective two-long-term vice-president.
Many Republicans would like to see Pence as the 46th President of the United States after 2024. The Democrats for different reasons would like to see the same thing happening as soon as possible.
NOTE - A version of the article was published previously in CARIBBEAN NEWS NOW!.
Tiberiu Dianu has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.
*****