1. The Arctic and the Current Geopolitical Situation
The United States must formulate a long-term strategy for counteracting Russias Arctic military expansion that has been taking place for the last half a century. The rich but unclaimed territory of the Arctic has been an area of U.S.-Russian frictions and incidents that in a post-Cold War period can escalate to the level of open conflict. The polar region holds
a quarter of the worlds undiscovered oil and gas resources with American waters covering about 27 billion barrels of oil and 132 trillion cubic feet of natural gas enough to create jobs revenues and heat for more than 30 years.
It becomes more and more obvious that in the current geopolitical situation Putin is not going anywhere. After all he is in his juvenile sixties and hes been around since 1999 as an on/off-off/on prime minister and president (and the charade will go on and on). On the other hand Trump was elected as the U.S. president in 2016 and may stay as a re-elected president until 2024.
The two world leaders Trump and Putin seem attuned to similar psychological patterns in texture and design. They sound and act alike they are considered patriots by their fellow citizens (or populists" by political analysts) and they are trusted by their base.
But let us not forget that Putin outlasted Bill Clinton at the end of his second mandate then George W. Bush after his two mandates and finally Barack Obama after his two mandates.
Therefore a 10-year forecast of the U.S.-Russia relationship is imperiously necessary.
2. The Arctic Players
The
region located at the northernmost part of Earth includes in its subarctic zone the northern territories of Canada Denmark Finland Iceland Norway Russia Sweden and the United States.
The arctic zone though is divided only among five players alongside a 200-mile demarcation line with Russia on one side and the United States Canada Denmark and Norway on the other.
The increased Russian military presence in the Arctic creates unease among these neighboring countries especially Norway who has proven very active in promoting NATOs role in the Arctic by backing the
Western application of sanctions against Russia.
3. Russias Northern Exposure"
In the Putin era Russia has taken several aggressive steps to mark its territory by reactivating and renovating its older Soviet military bases in order to accommodate last generation defense systems (including radar and ground guidance systems) fighter aircrafts nuclear-powered icebreaker ships and submarines. It also has extended motorized infantry brigades and border patrol guards (in the archipelago of Novaya Zemlya Murmansk and Yamal-Nenets regions Franz Josef Land Wrangel Island and Cape Schmidt).
In October 2013 Putin vowed never to surrender" Russias Arctic area. In October 2014 Russia announced its intention to submit more requests to the United Nations seeking to expand its Arctic borders by 1.2 million square kilometers (more than 463322 square miles). In November 2014 Putin announced to set up the
headquarters of a North" Arctic Command operational in December the same year.
In December 2015 Putin signed a new military doctrine according to which the Arctic was officially listed in the Russian sphere of influence.
4. The United States Response
Beginning in 2013 the U.S. have developed a national strategy for the Arctic region consisting of more than 30 specific initiatives in an implementation plan led by the Department of Homeland Security (and supported by other agencies like Commerce Defense State Transportation and National Science Foundation) to project a sovereign U.S. maritime presence support U.S. interests in the polar Regions and facilitate research that advances the fundamental understanding of the Arctic" (see
Ronald ORourkes September 14 2017 report pp. 8-9).
But the United States have to take
a more aggressive approach toward Russias militarization of the Arctic. The U.S. Navy should start building more polar icebreakers in order to prepare for possible Russian aggression. Traditionally the regional Coast Guard in the area was responsible for this task.
Currently the
U.S. polar icebreaking fleet includes two heavy endurance icebreakers (
Polar Star under technical revisions and
Polar Sea operational designed to perform missions in both the Arctic and Antarctic) one medium endurance icebreaker (
Healy used for scientific research in the Arctic) and one ship (
Palmer used for scientific research in the Antarctic).
Plans have been made for five or six more (two or three heavy and three medium) icebreakers whereas the price tag for one unit tops US$ 1 billion.
By comparison Russia has 41 icebreakers and
Canada has six (and is currently expanding).
5. Toward a New American Arctic Strategy
Building and modernizing a new icebreaker fleet is only part of a more comprehensive Arctic strategy that the U.S. has to design and implement. The American strategic interests in both polar regions (especially in the bordering Arctic) must be redefined at a national policy level. Therefore the U.S. Arctic sector must be reconfigured. The Russians have already taken steps in the United Nations in order to expand their Arctic zone.
We have to develop more Arctic military locations: temporary stations and permanent bases alongside Alaskas coastal areas (Arctic and Pacific) and in the
Aleutian archipelago (the Bering Sea) the westernmost part of the U.S. by longitude bordering Russia (where the U.S. detonated the largest underground nuclear explosion in 1971).
Also the United States should start a more intensive Arctic cooperation policy (including implementing bases) with its northern allies: Denmark (in Greenland) and Iceland.
Related to
Greenland the U.S. have been always developing a special geopolitical interest. Between 1941 and 1945 the island has been occupied by the American military as a response to Denmark being invaded by Nazi Germany. In 1946 the U.S. offered to buy Greenland from Denmark but the latter refused to sell it.
As for
Iceland the U.S. Naval Air Station at Keflavik closed in September 2006 is scheduled to reopen almost ten years after the last forces left the country due to the local authorities concern with the recent Russian activities.
In addition to that the U.S. should strengthen both NATO and bilateral cooperation with Canada and Norway and extend a military partnership with the other non-NATO Scandinavian allies (Finland and Sweden).
Thus an efficient American Arctic strategy would imply a binary component system with micro (the technical and logistical support) and macro elements (the military arch of Arctic allies). Therefore the United States should start updating and expanding the micro (where Russia is dominating now) in consonance with solidifying and extending the macro (where Russia is and will always be a solo player and consequently on its own due to an absence of Arctic allies).
NOTE - A version of the article was published previously in AMERICAN THINKER and featured in POLAR AND OCEAN PORTAL (in Chinese).
Tiberiu Dianu has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.
*****
