In the past week corona deaths not to mention infections have sky rocketed. This has led to nearly gleeful breathless renunciations of the coronavirus deniers as clearly the corona virus is much more serious than the flu contrary to all the right wing protestations. (See here for an example: https://www.propublica.org/video/why-this-coronavirus-is-not-like-the-flu-or-even-the-swine-flu) The new numbers look dire and indeed now even many on the right are admitting that the government must act more decisively to fix the problem. Clearly the time to panic has come.
Yet as I reported in my last article even before the recent surge the numbers were dramatically inflated. If the official numbers were wrong when the death toll was listed at 10000 12000 and 13000 we should automatically be skeptical of death tolls of 20000. Put another way once the measure of accounting has been called into question no further numbers can be accepted as valid. So is the spike a genuine thing? Or is it another example of flawed or dishonest accounting?
As multiple news organizations have reported the spike in deaths has a much more benign explanation. The method of counting deaths has changed. That is deaths have not actually jumped but rather the criteria to include someone as a covid-19 fatality has been dramatically loosened. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/02/13/new-coronavirus-covid-19-counting-method-leads-to-jump-in-cases-deaths/#79ffa2116afb and https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-numbers-explain.html for example) As I previously noted first doctors were expected to use discretion and report covid deaths only when it was likely that the disease had directly caused the death. If the patient died of something else it was listed under that cause. The first jump in numbers directly correlated with a change in this method. This changed to including ANY death no matter how clearly caused by something else if the patient also tested positive for covid. The cause of death is listed as coronavirus plus. The CDC has openly admitted that most of these deaths will not remain on the official tally once the final accounting is made. This is also a problem as it has long been known that a flu vaccination can cause false positives for other diseases (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7539579). While this doesnt mean as many conspiracy theorists claim that the flu vaccine CAUSES corona it does mean that quite a few corona positives are likely false.
Within the past week the CDC has again relaxed these already weak standards. Now doctors are allowed to forgo testing and label someone as covid positive with either less reliable testing (which doesnt require they even be sick) or just by the presence of covid symptoms (which are identical to those of the flu. (https://sanduskyregister.com/news/178884/cdc-and-ohio-change-method-for-counting-covid-19-cases/) While we already know that many if not the overwhelming majority of deaths attributed to the virus are caused by something else now we dont know that the virus is actually spreading at the rate we are being told. Even if someone is genuinely sick or dies from a covid-like ailment we have no idea if that is the flu or coronavirus. The entire method of counting has become completely unreliable and unpredictible. The massive spike is clearly caused not by a jump in the viruses lethality but its counting.
Ironically this massive jump has occured in the middle of severe and widespread stay at home orders forbidding people to leave their homes except for necessity. Taking the numbers at face value would mean that our entire response has been a dreadful failure which has caused significant damage to the economy and put untold millions out of work. Large numbers are unable to feed themselves without charity or government assistance and many live moment to moment wondering if they will be evicted. Since our measures are failing to prevent a massive surge this was for naught. Yet rather than reverse course we are hearing calls for MORE government intervention. Fear is a powerful motivator and 10000 deaths in one week is a fear inducer. Predictibly then we are hearing calls for increased regulation and restrictions.
All of the available data we possess suggests that the virus simply does not warrant these restrictions and even accepting the narrative the restrictions dont work. It is long past time to reevaluate our response and release these foolish knee jerk reactions.
In the past week corona deaths not to mention infections have sky rocketed. This has led to nearly gleeful breathless renunciations of the coronavirus deniers as clearly the corona virus is much more serious than the flu contrary to all the right wing protestations. (See here for an example: https://www.propublica.org/video/why-this-coronavirus-is-not-like-the-flu-or-even-the-swine-flu) The new numbers look dire and indeed now even many on the right are admitting that the government must act more decisively to fix the problem. Clearly the time to panic has come.
Yet as I reported in my last article even before the recent surge the numbers were dramatically inflated. If the official numbers were wrong when the death toll was listed at 10000 12000 and 13000 we should automatically be skeptical of death tolls of 20000. Put another way once the measure of accounting has been called into question no further numbers can be accepted as valid. So is the spike a genuine thing? Or is it another example of flawed or dishonest accounting?
As multiple news organizations have reported the spike in deaths has a much more benign explanation. The method of counting deaths has changed. That is deaths have not actually jumped but rather the criteria to include someone as a covid-19 fatality has been dramatically loosened. (https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/02/13/new-coronavirus-covid-19-counting-method-leads-to-jump-in-cases-deaths/#79ffa2116afb and https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/13/world/asia/coronavirus-numbers-explain.html for example) As I previously noted first doctors were expected to use discretion and report covid deaths only when it was likely that the disease had directly caused the death. If the patient died of something else it was listed under that cause. The first jump in numbers directly correlated with a change in this method. This changed to including ANY death no matter how clearly caused by something else if the patient also tested positive for covid. The cause of death is listed as coronavirus plus. The CDC has openly admitted that most of these deaths will not remain on the official tally once the final accounting is made. This is also a problem as it has long been known that a flu vaccination can cause false positives for other diseases (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7539579). While this doesnt mean as many conspiracy theorists claim that the flu vaccine CAUSES corona it does mean that quite a few corona positives are likely false.
Within the past week the CDC has again relaxed these already weak standards. Now doctors are allowed to forgo testing and label someone as covid positive with either less reliable testing (which doesnt require they even be sick) or just by the presence of covid symptoms (which are identical to those of the flu. (https://sanduskyregister.com/news/178884/cdc-and-ohio-change-method-for-counting-covid-19-cases/) While we already know that many if not the overwhelming majority of deaths attributed to the virus are caused by something else now we dont know that the virus is actually spreading at the rate we are being told. Even if someone is genuinely sick or dies from a covid-like ailment we have no idea if that is the flu or coronavirus. The entire method of counting has become completely unreliable and unpredictible. The massive spike is clearly caused not by a jump in the viruses lethality but its counting.
Ironically this massive jump has occured in the middle of severe and widespread stay at home orders forbidding people to leave their homes except for necessity. Taking the numbers at face value would mean that our entire response has been a dreadful failure which has caused significant damage to the economy and put untold millions out of work. Large numbers are unable to feed themselves without charity or government assistance and many live moment to moment wondering if they will be evicted. Since our measures are failing to prevent a massive surge this was for naught. Yet rather than reverse course we are hearing calls for MORE government intervention. Fear is a powerful motivator and 10000 deaths in one week is a fear inducer. Predictibly then we are hearing calls for increased regulation and restrictions.
All of the available data we possess suggests that the virus simply does not warrant these restrictions and even accepting the narrative the restrictions dont work. It is long past time to reevaluate our response and release these foolish knee jerk reactions.