The Kari Lake campaign highlighted some new polls on Friday showing her race against Ruben Gallego for the U.S. Senate is neck and neck. There are 20 independent polls which show that the race is averaging less than two points apart, with Gallego barely in the lead.
The campaign noted that the results correlate to a new poll Rasmussen Reports issued last Wednesday, “the pollster that called Donald Trump’s 2016 victory when no one else said he could win.” In 2023, after the election problems began so Rasmussen’s polls were “wrong” in 2020 and 2022, the political poll aggregator site 538 still rated the pollster a respectable “B” for accuracy.
After ABC News bought 538 from political analyst Nate Silver in 2023, the media organization removed Rasmussen’s polls. Silver, no conservative, denounced the move, stating that Rasmussen’s polling was no more biased than other pollsters. Rasmussen is not affiliated with any politician or group.
Lake’s campaign cited their own internal polling, which showed her ahead, 44 percent to Gallego at 43 percent. A National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) poll showed her tied with Gallego at 46 percent each. A poll from the Club for Growth Action Committee has Gallego ahead by two points, 48 percent to 46 percent. CNN and AARP, no right-leaning entities, both have her behind in their polls by only three points.
The mainstream media publishes articles about surveys from partisan pollsters showing Gallego significantly ahead of Lake. However, those polls often use questionable methodology, such as oversampling Democrats and college-educated voters, and surveying merely registered voters instead of likely voters.
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