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How Trump Could Win Nobel Peace Prize for Peace Agreement with Russia and China

How Trump Could Win Nobel Peace Prize for Peace Agreement with Russia and China
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The following proposal is a think piece designed to provoke unconventional out-of-the-box" thinking outside of the present world order paradigm in an attempt to imagine a more peaceful negotiated new international order. It is a significantly expanded follow-on version of the one previously published at WorldNetDaily entitled Trump could win Peace Prize with this tri-polar deal." The purpose of this newly-revised international order would be to avert a potential Third World War between the United States and the Sino-Russian axis of nations by minimizing potential risks of military conflict while preserving the vital interests of the United States. Due to the foolish decisions of past U.S. leaders to expand NATO to incorporate the nations of the former Warsaw Pact and even the former Soviet republics of Estonia Latvia and Lithuania as well as to fight never-ending wars of choice in Afghanistan Syria and especially Iraq the U.S. today finds itself seriously overextended militarily. Meanwhile Russia and its ally the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) have continued to engage in a massive nuclear missile buildup while the U.S. nuclear arsenal has remained stagnant and of increasingly questionable and decreasingly credible deterrent value. This increasing nuclear imbalance between the U.S. and the Russian Federation  has made the threat of nuclear war more likely than at any time in the past few decades at least. This rising threat requires the kind of unconventional out-of-the-box thinking which President Donald J. Trump has aptly demonstrated with his stated desires to end Americas forever wars in the Middle East bring tens of thousands of U.S. troops home and even consider a U.S. withdrawal from the NATO alliance. President Donald J. Trump came to office promising better relations with Russia but regrettably has been delayed from doing so by partisan Democrat allegations of collusion between his presidential campaign and Russia since disproven and now over-hyped charges relating to Ukraine. His replacement of John Bolton with Robert O Brien as his new National Security Advisor an outstanding choice who seems much less inclined to embroil the U.S. in new wars along with his recently announced  decision to withdraw U.S. troops fighting in the Syrian Civil War have been welcome steps in the right direction. Accordingly conditions now appear to be ripe for a U.S.-led peace offensive and detente with both Russia and the Peoples Republic of China that formally recognizes their great power status and their vital interests in exchange for their recognition of a U.S. sphere of influence including a free hand to enforce the Monroe Doctrine. The President has reportedly voiced his desire to leave NATO on several occasions sparking concern in some circles however he is absolutely right to conclude that it is in the U.S. national security interest to do so.  The time has come for a revolutionary new U.S. grand strategic initiative that brings an end to the old great power alliance systems which transformed two regional wars into world wars resulting in the unnecessary deaths of tens of millions of people. While the NATO alliance proved crucial in deterring Soviet aggression during the First Cold War it has since become a noose around the neck of U.S. policymakers. This is due to the fact the U.S. is currently obligated to risk a likely nuclear World War Three with Russia over the Baltics and Eastern Europe that do not constitute U.S. vital interests which could cost tens of millions if not hundreds of millions of American lives. Meanwhile during a speech he gave to the graduating cadets at the U.S. Military Academy in West Point this past May Vice President Mike Pence effectively admitted as much appearing to predict a world war in Americas near future and declaring that some of them would fight a war on the Korean Peninsula and others would fight a war against Russia in Eastern Europe. A U.S. departure from NATO should be made conditional upon a much broader Churchillian sphere of influence agreement with the Russian Federation and the Peoples Republic of China ending the Second Cold War by renegotiating and replacing the current bi-polar international order with a new tri-polar international order which better reflects the balance of power that exists in the world today. The West learned the hard way from the tragic failure of the Versailles Treaty to prevent the Second World War that the key to a lasting peace and enduring international order is one that is both just and recognizes the vital interests of every great power which the current one does not. The purpose of this agreement would be to transform Russia and China from revisionist powers into satisfied powers committed to upholding the new international order. Under such an agreement the U.S. would agree to withdraw from NATO in exchange for Russia and China ending their 2001 Treaty of Friendship and withdrawing from their Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) military alliance which Putin has referred to as a reborn Warsaw Pact." Both alliances could continue to exist with exclusively non-great powers serving as members and NATO being transformed into a European-led alliance while continuing to include Eastern European nations (with the exception of the Baltic States) and Turkey. French and German leaders have already expressed their support for forming a true European Army consisting only of troops from European nations. U.S. troops could remain in Germany and the United Kingdom in accordance with existing bilateral Status of Forces Agreements. Rather than serving as a global superpower policing the world against perceived threats some real and some not the U.S. should return to its traditional pre-World War Two role of being a predominantly hemispheric power. Its sphere of influence might include North & South America (including Cuba Venezuela and Nicaragua) Iceland Western Europe (including Germany Italy Austria Switzerland and Denmark) Israel Japan South Korea Australia and New Zealand.  The Russian sphere of influence might encompass all of the former Soviet Republics Serbia Mongolia India Libya Syria Lebanon Iran and Iraq. The Chinese sphere of influence could include Taiwan North Korea the South China Sea Pakistan Afghanistan Nepal Bhutan Myanmar Laos Cambodia and Vietnam and various Marxist/Communist-led republics predominantly in southern Africa as well as Ethiopia and Congo. Non-Aligned States would include Scandinavia (excepting Denmark) Eastern Europe (excluding the former Soviet republics) Turkey Jordan and the Arabian Peninsula Kuwait most of Africa Indonesia the Philippines Papua New Guinea Malaysia Thailand Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. A buffer zone would be established in Eastern Europe in between the U.S. and Russian spheres consisting of non-aligned states to prevent future conflict. Each great power would be responsible for policing and arbitrating disputes between the countries within its own respective sphere. As part of the agreement the U.S. would agree to withdraw all of its troops from Central Asia the Middle East and Eastern Europe while maintaining its nuclear/defense umbrella over all of the nations within its sphere of influence. Alternatively the US could retain its troop presence in Kuwait Bahrain Qatar and the United Arab Emirates which are not likely areas of potential conflict. The U.S. would mediate the signing of a peace treaty ending the state of war between Russia and Japan splitting the difference between the positions of each side and returning the three southernmost Kurile Islands to Japan. It would also support and perhaps even agree to mediate a reunification agreement between the PRC and Taiwan based upon Chinese leader Deng Xiaopings proposal for one country two systems. As part of the agreement Taiwan would become a special administrative region able to retain its own military its own economic and governmental system legal economic and financial affairs including trade relations with foreign countries independent of those of the mainland in return for recognizing the sovereignty of the PRC over all of China including Taiwan. This would help ensure a reunification took place peacefully while attempting to maximize the freedoms and autonomy of Taiwan under the agreement. In exchange for the signing of a peace treaty ending the Korean War and withdrawal of all U.S. troops from South Korea North Korea would undergo a nuclear freeze with an end to all of its nuclear and missile tests. Before U.S. forces withdrew North Korea would have to crash its two super-Electro-Magnetic-Pulse (EMP) satellites orbiting over the U.S. (or allow the U.S. to shoot them down) followed by the verified dismantlement of its Yongbyon nuclear research center and all of its nuclear weapons production facilities. President Trump has rightly derided Americas NATO allies for not doing enough as they should do to provide for their own defense. In exchange for Russia being granted a sphere of influence over all of the former Soviet republics and a U.S. withdrawal from NATO both Germany and Japan would be allowed to build up to 300 nuclear weapons (about the same level as Britain France and Israel) along with intermediate-range delivery systems. This limited German nuclear deterrent would be critical in ensuring the defense needs of the new European-led NATO alliance would be met. Germany and Japan would be invited to join UN Security Council as permanent members along with India as the most populous country in the world. The great powers would limit themselves to peaceful competition in matters of trade and technology. Once verified to be in full compliance with the agreement all U.S. economic sanctions on Russia China and North Korea would end and the U.S. would support Russian admission to the G-7 which would become the G-8 again. The three nuclear superpowers would agree to recognize and respect each others vital interests and refrain from interfering in each others respective spheres while committing to resolve all disputes peacefully through diplomacy and negotiation rather than war. A U.S. withdrawal from NATO would be made conditional upon an end to all Sino-Russian military assistance arms sales and cooperation. In the event that Russia China or North Korea violated the agreement by attacking a non-aligned nation or Russia and China engaged in military cooperation or arms transfers the U.S. could announce it was rejoining NATO and redeploying its troops to Eastern Europe while levying economic sanctions against the offending power(s). If a great power or North Korea sent arms to U.S. enemies within its sphere of influence or threatened to attack a U.S. ally within its sphere and under its nuclear umbrella the U.S. could threaten to cancel the sphere of influence agreement provisions in relation to the offending power altogether and send military aid to their enemies within their own spheres of influence. It is important to note that this sphere of influence agreement could be partially implemented and still make substantial strides towards averting potential future great power conflicts. For example this proposal could be made more conventional by allowing the U.S. to remain in NATO in exchange for allowing Russia and China to remain allies in the SCO with no provision for either Germany or Japan acquiring nuclear weapons. In this case the U.S. would claim an expanded sphere of influence over NATOs East European members (except the Baltic States) and Norway but probably not Turkey given its increasing alignment with Russia and recent support for ISIS and other jihadist groups operating in northern Syria. However the U.S. would still agree to keep its troops out of Eastern Europe except in the event of Russian aggression. The Sino-Russian alliance treaty is believed to have a provision committing both countries to go to war in defense of the other in the event of war breaking out over the Baltics Ukraine or Taiwan. So if the U.S. were to grant a sphere of influence to Russia over the Baltics and Ukraine and to the PRC over Taiwan and the South China Sea the chances of the U.S. having to face both countries in a major war would be drastically reduced. Accordingly a less far reaching agreement such as this including the substance of the proposal for peace on the Korean peninsula would still provide the U.S. with considerably increased security while drastically reducing the risks of a major war breaking out between the two opposing blocs. Yet another option would be for the U.S. to sign a sphere of influence with Russia but not China along with a mutual defense pact between our two great nations that would effectively serve to deter Chinese or North Korean aggression against us. The last great power sphere of influence agreement was authored by none other than former British Prime Minister Sir. Winston Churchill at the Fourth Moscow Conference in October 1944 later ratified by The Big Three at Yalta three months later. It was successful in keeping the peace between the great powers in Europe and was honored by both sides for fifty-four years until three former members of the Warsaw Pact were admitted to NATO in 1999. Similarly a global sphere of influence agreement could very well be successful in keeping the great power peace for another five decades. Churchills sphere of influence agreement worked for over half a century because the U.S. and its Western Allies maintained a rough balance of power with the Soviet bloc throughout the duration of the Cold War up until the signing of the Treaty of Moscow in 2002 which limited the U.S. to a mere 2200 deployed strategic warheads without sufficient verification measures to prevent Russian cheating. Thus the only way the U.S. can be assured that a new sphere of influence agreement will be successful in keeping the great power peace for the next half century is if the U.S. were to increase the number of its deployed strategic nuclear warheads back up to reported Russian levels and re-establish rough nuclear parity. Accordingly following the conclusion of this agreement President Trump should renounce the New START Agreement that Russia appears to be breaking out of and which he has rightly denounced as a bad deal." The Administration could then work to negotiate a successor arms control treaty increasing the number of allowable deployed strategic warheads to 3300 (similar to the START II Treaty) but with much stronger verification measures. In order to restore the nuclear arms balance the U.S. should increase the size of its arsenal to match Russian nuclear force levels which it could quickly and cheaply do by re-deploying most or all 2000 remaining undeployed strategic warheads currently being held in reserve atop our Trident II SLBMs to maximize their deterrent value. President Trump should also make hardening the nations electrical power grid a top national priority to counter the existential threat of EMP attack which according to the Report of the Congressional EMP Commission could result in the deaths of ninety percent of Americas citizens within a year while building a comprehensive national missile defense system similar to Russias. In order to restore our ability to effectively and credibly deter a hypothetical Russian nuclear first strike against the U.S. homeland it is also important that the U.S. act quickly to increase our Ohio-class nuclear missile submarine operations tempo/deployments from the Obama Administration level of 27 back to the Cold War operations tempo of 66 as all of our Ohio nuclear missile submarines in port would be destroyed in the event of a nuclear first strike . The U.S. also needs to increase the number of warheads on each Trident II SLBM from 4 warheads to 8 warheads each in order to ensure that at least 1750 warheads would survive a Russian nuclear first strike or up to about six times more survivable warheads than would be the case today. While this proposal would not be without political risks President Trump has made a name for himself as a renowned negotiator and skilled dealmaker and is exceptionally-well suited to negotiate such a Churchillian sphere of influence agreement with both Russia and China that better safeguards U.S. national security. In so doing he would not only have an opportunity to secure his presidential legacy as a transformational Peace President but could likely use this foreign policy triumph to ensure his re-election as well. In addition he would likely be awarded with a Nobel Peace Prize for creating the necessary conditions for an enduring peace between the superpowers that could very possibly prevent a major war for the next half century or more for which future generations of Americans would be deeply grateful. © David T. Pyne 2019 David T. Pyne Esq. is a former U.S. Army combat arms and H.Q. staff officer with a M.A. in National Security Studies from Georgetown University. He currently serves as a member of the Utah Advisory Committee of the United States Global Leadership Coalition and as Utah Director of the EMP Task Force on National and Homeland Security. He can be reached at [email protected].  
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