KStrat: What One Arizona GOP Primary Poll Shows About Why Poll Integrity Matters
September 4, 2025
Phoenix, AZ — A recent Arizona poll, conducted by Noble Predictive Insights (NPI), found that the candidate who wins with voters on the issues loses the race. An independent review of the August 2025 Arizona Republican gubernatorial primary poll identified three key discrepancies that may have inflated Karrin Taylor Robson's standing in the primary compared to Andy Biggs by as much as 15 to 20 percentage points, flipping the story of the race.
"At their best, polls help us understand the pulse of the voter,” said KStrat CEO Kevin Wen. “But when polls are built on flawed or inconsistent methods, they weaken the very trust that they are meant to build. Integrity and transparency matters in polling and politics, not just in campaigns.”
Key Findings
● Supporter Contradiction: The poll shows Robson has more overall support, yet Biggs outperformed her on key Republican issues such as border enforcement, social conservatism, pro-life positions, government spending and Trump loyalty.
● Weighting Error: Using general election weights instead of GOP primary weights likely underrepresented older and more Republican-leaning voters. This misalignment shifted the results in Robson's favor by more than 10 points.
● Party Label Bias: Robson was clearly labeled a "Republican," while Biggs was not. Research shows asymmetry sways results by presenting one candidate as the default partisan choice.
● Additional Concerns: The GOP subsample included only 341 weighted respondents, too small to yield reliable estimates. Also, the results conflicted with NPI’s own May 2025 poll: Biggs expanded his lead on Republican issues by August, yet the margin against him grew wider.
Why It Matters
As pollsters, we have a responsibility to poll the people in the least biased and most accurate way possible. When flawed polls shape headlines and campaigns, they don’t just misstate one race; they weaken public trust in polling as a whole.
Read the full findings here