1. Predictions
My predictions were partially confirmed.
I predicted Trumps victory.
However in terms of preponderance Trump has not won in the Reagan-esque manner that I expected but rather in a Bush-ist way.
2. Retrospectives
I will review and compare findings between the three Republican periods: Reagan (1980-1988) Bush Jr. (2000-2008) and Trump (2016-2020/2024).
2.1. Review
In 1980 the Republican Ronald Reagan won both the electoral (489 vs. 49 out of the 538 Electoral College votes) and the popular vote (50.7 vs. 41.0 for the Democrat Jimmy Carter and 6.6 for the Independent Patrick Lucey). Also Reagan carried 44 states while Carter carried only 6 states plus DC.
Then in 1984 Reagan won again on a landslide both the electoral (525 vs. 13) and popular vote (58.8 vs. 40.6 for Democrat Walter Mondale). He carried 49 states while Mondale carried only 1 state (his native Minnesota) plus DC.
In 2000 the Republican George Bush Jr. won the electoral vote (271 vs. 266) but lost the popular vote (47.9 vs. 48.4 for the Democrat Al Gore) with a difference of about half a million votes (543895). Bush carried 30 states while Gore carried only 20 states plus DC.
However in 2004 Bush consolidated his gains both on the electoral (286 vs. 252) and popular (51.0 vs. 48.5 for Democrat John Kerry) vote levels. He carried 31 states while Kerry carried only 19 states plus DC.
In 2016 the Republican Donald Trump won quite comfortably the electoral vote (306 vs. 232) but lost the popular vote (46.37 vs. 47.93 for Democrat Hillary Clinton) with a difference of about 2 million votes (2095756). Trump carried 30 states (plus Maines 2nd congressional district) while Clinton carried only 20 states plus DC.
Because of this 2-million vote difference some in the country (Democrats in particular) question the validity of the Electoral College system while a few others (far-left groups in particular) push for state secession.
2.2. Findings
There are some interesting findings regarding Bush and Trumps performances in their first elections (in 2000 and 2016 respectively).
(1) In terms of carried states: both of them won 30 out of 50 states (minus DC) although Trump did slightly better (by capturing also the Maines 2nd congressional district).
(2) In terms of votes: both of them won the electoral vote but lost the popular vote.
(3) In terms of popular vote loss: the Bush loss was moderate (-0.5 million votes) while the Trump loss was large (-2 million votes).
Possible explanations include:
(a) Party support or lack thereof. Bush had his partys unconditional support after the primaries were over and he got his party nomination while Trump had to struggle almost until the end of the electoral campaign with practically everybody (the Establishment Republicans the Democrats the Mainstream Media and the international community).
Given all these adverse conditions Trumps victory appears as almost miraculously prepared by God (not that this could not have been a factor). Therefore a lot of credits should be given to Trumps campaign team (and particularly to Steve Bannon Kellyanne Conway and Jared Kushner to name just a few).
(b) Third party increasing influence. In 2000 Ralph Naders Green Party one of the few third parties with some national appeal - won 2.7 of the popular vote. In 2016 no less than 29 third party and independent presidential candidates emerged on the ballot in at least one state capturing 5.7 of the popular vote mostly from the Republicans.
Thus Gary Johnsons Libertarian party acquired 4.4 million votes (the highest nationwide vote share for a third party candidate since Ross Perot in 1996) while the conservative-independent Evan McMullin obtained 21 of the total votes in his home state of Utah. In addition Jill Steins Green Party (a self-proclaimed anti-Clinton political entity) received 1.3 million votes (the most for a Green nominee since Ralph Nader in 2000).
(c) Weak to moderate gains in populous states. Trump won surprisingly in states carried by the Democratic president Obama in 2012 such as: Florida Iowa Maine (the 2nd congressional district) Michigan Ohio Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
However his victory margins were small and reported to the respective states large or very large populations they have added little to his popular vote total score.
3. Perspectives
I will project a Trump second term (2020-2024) if several conditions are met.
Past lessons (of 1984 and 2004) should be learned for the near future (for 2018 and 2020) provided the following conditions are met.
(1) Repeating the aggressive campaign in the Democratic-leaning states. As the 2016 election results showed there is no state to be taken for granted anymore.
(2) Consolidating the gains. In 2016 on federal level the Republicans won both the congressional (maintaining their majority of seats in the US Congress House and Senate) and presidential elections (winning the presidency after eight years). On state gubernatorial level Republicans won control of governors office in the states of Missouri New Hampshire and Vermont (to date 31 of the 50 governors offices) inching toward their historical high of 34 governorships (in 1922). On state legislative level Republicans also won control of the Kentucky House (for the first time in almost a century) and the Iowa Senate (giving them full control of the state legislative).
In 2018 a mid-election year many Democratic incumbents will face re-elections in Republican-leaning states. Therefore the Republicans are expected to perform better on both federal (US Congress) and state (gubernatorial and legislative) levels. These are signs that gain consolidation is feasible.
(3) Capturing the popular vote. In 2020 Trump has to perform better on national level and (at least like Bush in 2004) has to capture the popular vote (in addition to the electoral vote).
This task is achievable by focusing on current Democratic-carried states won by Bush in 2004 but lost by Romney in 2012 (like Colorado Nevada New Mexico and Virginia).
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In conclusion in order to Make America Great Again after eight years of Obamas continuous attempts of social engineering experiments on America Trump has to win decisively in 2020 (if not like Reagan in 1984 at least like Bush in 2004) and to capture the trust and energies of the absolute (not relative) majority of Americans. NOTE - A version of the article was published previously in MEDIUM. Tiberiu Dianu has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM. *****