The Brexit-Trump Factor in Europe
As Charles Dickens would have put it after the day of Sunday December 4 2016 it was the best of times it was the worst of times" for the cities of Vienna and Rome. The presidential re-run in Austria and the constitutional referendum in Italy have been expected to be a confirmation (or not) of the Brexit-Trump factor. As it turned out it was a day with some bad news and some good news.
Austria
Presidential elections in Austria are held once every six years under a two-round system and the president is directly elected. Incumbent president Heinz Fischer (Social Democratic Party/SPO center-left) had served two terms and was not eligible for a third successive term.
On April 24 2016 in the first round of the elections Norbert Hofer (Freedom Party of Austria/FPO right-wing populist) received the most votes but under 50 and Alexander Van der Bellen a former SPO member (The Greens/DG left) placed second. On May 22 in the second round run-off Van der Bellen defeated Hofer after the postal ballots were counted.
The results were challenged and the Constitutional Court of Austria found that almost 78000 absentee votes were improperly counted too early. The Court annulled the results and planned a re-vote of the second round on October 2 which was eventually postponed to December 4.
On December 4 the voter turnout was estimated to be 74.1 and Van der Bellen was in the lead with 53.3 of votes with Hofer second with 46.7 of votes. Hofer conceded the race to Van der Bellen in an election with a troubled history which was called a blow to the populist movement." Although Hofer was not specifically for the countrys exit from the European Union his opponent was perceived as a better choice for the Austrians who support EU membership in an overwhelming majority."
Hofers victory would have been considered of the same magnitude as Britains vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president last month."
In spite of his defeat (at a narrow margin at almost 47) Hofer said that his party is now in pole position for the parliamentary elections in 2018" and promised that he would run again for the next presidential elections planned to be held in 2022.
Anyhow Austria (where immigration has been a top issue) was a close call from the Brexit-Trump hot wave.
As a result of a snap election in October 2017 a new government between the Austrian Peoples Party (OVP center-right 31.5 of votes with a new young leader Sebastian Kurz) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO right-wing populist 26 of votes) under the new chancellor Kurz was sworn in on December 18 2017.
Sebastian Kurz is a burka ban supporter and backed Trumps border wall.
Italy
On April 8 2014 the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (Democratic Party/PD center-left) introduced a bill in the Senate that amended the Italian Constitution with the aim of reforming the composition and powers of the Parliament (the bill reduced number of Parliament members the role of the Senate and the Regions). The bill was eventually approved by Senate on January 20 2016 and Chamber on April 12 2016. According to the Article 138 of the Italian Constitution because the amendment failed to be approved by a majority of two-thirds in each house of Parliament it would become law if it received the support of a majority of votes cast in a national referendum.
If approved by referendum the constitutional amendment would have achieved the most extensive reform in terms of enlarging the government powers - since the end of monarchy (in 1946). Also this was the third constitutional referendum in the history of the Italian Republic. Previously there were referenda in 2001 (approving the amending law) and 2006 (rejecting the amending law).
Matteo Renzi the youngest Italian prime minister (nominated in 2014 when he was just 39) regarded by some of being too arrogant was confident in the Parliamentary support of his agenda and put a personal spin on the referendum (popularly called Renzirendum") claiming that he would resign in case of a negative vote.
The referendum was a major blow to his policies. Around 60 of the Italians voted No" Renzi conceded defeat on December 5 before official results were announced and he announced his resignation.
The leaders of the main opposition parties the Five Star Movement/M5S populist and the Northern League/LN regionalist) called for immediate elections.
President Sergio Mattarella (also PD) opted for a care-taker government (of the same PD) until the 2018 elections in order to prevent a financial earthquake.
After Renzis defeat the euro dropped.
However the euros drop was not as far as the British pound after the Brexit result.
And so Italy the third EU economy (where unemployment and immigration have been the top issues) has become the first European country hit by the effect of the Brexit-Trump hot wave.
The parliamentary elections of March 5 2018 marked a surge of the anti-European Union populist and right-wing parties. The anti-establishment populist Five Star Movement captured over 32 of votes and the right-wing coalition won 36 of votes (the far right anti-immigration League - formerly the Northern League with almost 18 the center-right; Silvio Berlusconis center-right Forza Italia with 14 and the radical right Fratelli dItalia party with over 4).
Matteo Salvini the Leagues leader is a known Trump admirer and a fan of Putin.
The center-left Democratic Party (whose Paolo Gentiloni government is currently in power) scored a disappointing 19 of votes.
With no clear majority the election is expected to produce a hung Parliament and long negotiations to form a new government.
NOTE - A version of the article was published previously in EPOCH TIMES.
Tiberiu Dianu has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.
The Brexit-Trump Factor in Europe
As Charles Dickens would have put it after the day of Sunday December 4 2016 it was the best of times it was the worst of times" for the cities of Vienna and Rome. The presidential re-run in Austria and the constitutional referendum in Italy have been expected to be a confirmation (or not) of the Brexit-Trump factor. As it turned out it was a day with some bad news and some good news.
Austria
Presidential elections in Austria are held once every six years under a two-round system and the president is directly elected. Incumbent president Heinz Fischer (Social Democratic Party/SPO center-left) had served two terms and was not eligible for a third successive term.
On April 24 2016 in the first round of the elections Norbert Hofer (Freedom Party of Austria/FPO right-wing populist) received the most votes but under 50 and Alexander Van der Bellen a former SPO member (The Greens/DG left) placed second. On May 22 in the second round run-off Van der Bellen defeated Hofer after the postal ballots were counted.
The results were challenged and the Constitutional Court of Austria found that almost 78000 absentee votes were improperly counted too early. The Court annulled the results and planned a re-vote of the second round on October 2 which was eventually postponed to December 4.
On December 4 the voter turnout was estimated to be 74.1 and Van der Bellen was in the lead with 53.3 of votes with Hofer second with 46.7 of votes. Hofer conceded the race to Van der Bellen in an election with a troubled history which was called a blow to the populist movement." Although Hofer was not specifically for the countrys exit from the European Union his opponent was perceived as a better choice for the Austrians who support EU membership in an overwhelming majority."
Hofers victory would have been considered of the same magnitude as Britains vote for Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as US president last month."
In spite of his defeat (at a narrow margin at almost 47) Hofer said that his party is now in pole position for the parliamentary elections in 2018" and promised that he would run again for the next presidential elections planned to be held in 2022.
Anyhow Austria (where immigration has been a top issue) was a close call from the Brexit-Trump hot wave.
As a result of a snap election in October 2017 a new government between the Austrian Peoples Party (OVP center-right 31.5 of votes with a new young leader Sebastian Kurz) and the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO right-wing populist 26 of votes) under the new chancellor Kurz was sworn in on December 18 2017.
Sebastian Kurz is a burka ban supporter and backed Trumps border wall.
Italy
On April 8 2014 the Prime Minister Matteo Renzi (Democratic Party/PD center-left) introduced a bill in the Senate that amended the Italian Constitution with the aim of reforming the composition and powers of the Parliament (the bill reduced number of Parliament members the role of the Senate and the Regions). The bill was eventually approved by Senate on January 20 2016 and Chamber on April 12 2016. According to the Article 138 of the Italian Constitution because the amendment failed to be approved by a majority of two-thirds in each house of Parliament it would become law if it received the support of a majority of votes cast in a national referendum.
If approved by referendum the constitutional amendment would have achieved the most extensive reform in terms of enlarging the government powers - since the end of monarchy (in 1946). Also this was the third constitutional referendum in the history of the Italian Republic. Previously there were referenda in 2001 (approving the amending law) and 2006 (rejecting the amending law).
Matteo Renzi the youngest Italian prime minister (nominated in 2014 when he was just 39) regarded by some of being too arrogant was confident in the Parliamentary support of his agenda and put a personal spin on the referendum (popularly called Renzirendum") claiming that he would resign in case of a negative vote.
The referendum was a major blow to his policies. Around 60 of the Italians voted No" Renzi conceded defeat on December 5 before official results were announced and he announced his resignation.
The leaders of the main opposition parties the Five Star Movement/M5S populist and the Northern League/LN regionalist) called for immediate elections.
President Sergio Mattarella (also PD) opted for a care-taker government (of the same PD) until the 2018 elections in order to prevent a financial earthquake.
After Renzis defeat the euro dropped.
However the euros drop was not as far as the British pound after the Brexit result.
And so Italy the third EU economy (where unemployment and immigration have been the top issues) has become the first European country hit by the effect of the Brexit-Trump hot wave.
The parliamentary elections of March 5 2018 marked a surge of the anti-European Union populist and right-wing parties. The anti-establishment populist Five Star Movement captured over 32 of votes and the right-wing coalition won 36 of votes (the far right anti-immigration League - formerly the Northern League with almost 18 the center-right; Silvio Berlusconis center-right Forza Italia with 14 and the radical right Fratelli dItalia party with over 4).
Matteo Salvini the Leagues leader is a known Trump admirer and a fan of Putin.
The center-left Democratic Party (whose Paolo Gentiloni government is currently in power) scored a disappointing 19 of votes.
With no clear majority the election is expected to produce a hung Parliament and long negotiations to form a new government.
NOTE - A version of the article was published previously in EPOCH TIMES.
Tiberiu Dianu has published several books and a host of articles in law politics and post-communist societies. He currently lives and works in Washington DC and can be followed on MEDIUM.