It’s long been believed that whoever wins Florida in a US Presidential election wins the Presidency. That hasn’t always been the case when it comes to the history of elections in the country, but it has been the case more often than not, and there’s definitely something to be said for it. The Sunshine State is a fine barometer of the national mood, and it’s of such vital importance to both sides in any election that it tends to be the state where the most money is spent on advertising.
For most of the past three months, the numbers in Florida haven't looked good for Trump. We learned not to look too closely at polls in the aftermath of the last election, but when poll numbers go a long way outside the margin of error, there's clearly a strong indication of which way the wind is blowing, and until very recently, there were some well-respected polls that placed Joe Biden as many as five points clear of the incumbent President. The margin of error is two points - perhaps three at a push - and so if things stayed that way, Florida would turn blue, and Biden would be well on his way to picking up the keys to the White House. During the past week, however, we got our first signs that the wind is changing direction - and it's because of a reason that probably seems unthinkable to the Biden camp.
One of the key factors that have been thought to be on Biden's side throughout the election campaign is his popularity with non-white voters. As he himself so memorably said, he believes that black people who don’t vote for him aren’t really black. Racial tensions are at a high that we haven’t seen for many years in the USA, and it’s expected that the majority of black and ethnic minority voters will be casting their ballots in Biden’s favor on election day. The Democrats are relying on this support, and Biden’s controversial comments suggest that he’s become complacent about it being there when it matters the most. Based on the information that’s coming from Florida, he needs to shake off that complacency quickly. Trump has a new, solid-looking bedrock of support in Florida - and it’s coming from the state’s Hispanic population.
Those of you who live in Florida - and especially in and around Miami - might have noticed a sudden upsurge in the number of pro-Biden Spanish-language adverts on your televisions recently. This is not a coincidence. Recent internal polling performed by Biden's team has revealed that Biden is suffering from what's euphemistically being referred to as 'a Latino problem.' To be more specific, the problem Biden has with Latinos is that they don't like him, and they're not planning on voting for him. During the first week of September, the polling company Bendixen & Amandi conducted a pole in Miami-Dade, where one-third of all registered voters have a Cuban background. The numbers were shocking. 68% of Cuban Americans in the area plan to vote for Trump. Only a paltry 30% plan to vote for Biden. That's even fewer votes from the Latino community than Hillary Clinton polled in 2016, who got 41% of them. Barack Obama managed to get almost exactly half.
Trump's breakthrough among the Cuban Americans living in Miami - and in wider Florida - is thought to have come off the back of his repeated warnings about Biden's association with left-wing radicals, Antifa, and the Marxist wing of the BLM movement. These things matter to those of Cuban descent. Some of them grew up under the tyrannical rule of Communist leader Fidel Castro. Those who are too young to remember that have been told stories by their parents and grandparents. They don't trust the left, and they have good reasons not to. They came to America to escape from it. They don't want to be subjected to rule by a left-leaning government again, and they'll use their votes to stop it from happening. There are 5.8 million members of the Hispanic community living in Florida, and that's a powerful voting bloc. If they turn out in force, they could form the Republican vote's backbone and lay the foundations for a Republican win in the process.
It's important to note that the Hispanic vote alone wouldn't be enough for Trump. He also has the traditionally conservative north of the state on his side, but the sale Bendixen & Amandi poll that provided good news about the Hispanic population also suggests that Biden is leading Trump in the state overall by 55% to 38%, which is catastrophic. Saying you're going to vote for someone and actually going out and doing it is not the same thing, but even if we allow for a 5% swing in Trump's favor and a 5% drop for Biden, Biden would still win the race comfortably. More work has to be done in Florida between now and election day to shore up the Republican vote, but insights like the one gleaned from this poll tell us that despite what we see elsewhere in the news, it can be done. The race is far from over.
Don’t allow the alarmist polls and the ‘foregone conclusion’ headlines depress or dismay you. The race is not run, and the election is not over. Only the most arrogant or foolish forecaster would declare the election a done deal at this point. We wouldn’t even place a bet on it. With the odds shifting so often, you’d be better off betting on a game at an UK slots website than betting on either side at the moment. Perhaps you could choose the ‘Rocket Men’ online slots game, which depicts a simulated war between Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un. The slot isn’t available in most places in the USA, but it’s popular in Europe. That serves as a reminder that if there are people out there willing to make online slots games about policy decisions and political happenings surrounding Trump, the rest of the world still has a fascination with the country’s leader. Divisive he may be, but he’s probably the most famous man in the world, and the Trump brand still has capital in it.
Six months ago, we didn't think we'd be here saying that the Hispanic vote could be Trump's saving grace. If what's happening in Florida is being repeated elsewhere in the country, it might turn out to be the case. Wouldn't that just be so 2020?
